Capelle On Golf

Tiger Woods (72) and Phil Mickelson (73) stayed put on moving day, shooting themselves out of contention. Meanwhile, those who worked their way into the top 10 going into Sunday averaged 67.2 on a soft and vulnerable Whistling Straits.

Nick Watney (66), who is taught by Butch Harmon, was making every putt and looked to have this all but wrapped up on the 18th tee. But his four shot lead turned into three after he visited the rough twice, giving a bit of hope to horde of challengers that now rest within five shots.

Watney would be no big surprise considering his seventh at the Masters and 7t at the British Open, both this year. He is nine under on the 12 par fives, which ties him for first, and is a sign that he’s hitting it long and straight. And then there is his demeanor. Paired in the third round with Smiling Matt Kuchar, he outsmiled his perennially sunny playing partner, giving the appearance that he is enjoying himself.

Will he be smiling on the first tee when it hits him that the tournament is his to win or lose? Who knows? Certainly the oddsmakers like him as Ladbrokes has him at 6/4. So maybe he will close like Nicklaus or Woods, or perhaps he’ll do a Dustin Johnson. With a three shot lead, he is expected to win, a burden that has proved too much for countless players in his position..

Should the 29 year old Watney falter, we’ve got a foursome of kids looking to break the ice - all big talents for whom greatness has been predicted. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy (67), who opened the tournament by playing his first four holes in three over, but then played his next 50 holes in 13 under while making  17 birdies, two bogeys, and one double. The oddsmakers have him at 3/1, which I think is the best bet among Watney’s closest followers simply because he seems to be the heir apparent to Woods as the game’s top player.

McIlroy, 21, has done nothing but break par after his debacle at the Open, firing nine straight rounds under par on difficult courses. Dustin Johnson (67), 26, who is also at 10 under, is likewise showing that he can bounceback from a round in the 80s in a major. He is hitting it miles and, like Watney, has played the par fives in nine under. Ladbrokes has him at 4/1.

The next group at eight under includes Martin Kaymer (25), Jason Day (22), and Wen Chong Liang (32). Kaymer, who was my pre tourney pick, is now listed at 10/1 after Saturday’s 67. He’s got three top eights in his last four majors, and is positioned for another won on Sunday. He seems to have the kind of cool demeanor that is conducive to withstanding the heat.

Jason Day boasted a couple of years ago that he was ready to challenge Woods. Well, he’s yet to face Woods head-to-head, but the talented  Australian did win his first PGA Tour event this year, and his six birdie, no bogey, 66 has him positioned to capture a major should Watney falter. He’s at 25/1, which seems like a good bet. Liang from China shot the tournaments best on Saturday, a 64, to put himself into the thick of it. Should he win, he could ignite a golf boom in the world’s most populous nation. Like Day, he is at 25/1.

The final foursome within five shots of Watney includes Jim Furyk (14/1), Zach Johnson (33/1), Steve Elkington (66/1), and Jason Dufner (80-1). To make a charge, a member of this group will have to do well on the par fives. Furyk is one over on them, so I give him little chance to go low enough to win. As for the other three, I can’t see any of these long shots winning.

If Watney keeps cool and plays his game, he will be tough to beat. If not, then we could have a shootout for the ages. And, refreshingly, it looks like one of the great talents in contention will have his breakout major in hand come Sunday night.