Capelle On Golf

Phil Mickelson had a chance to take over the #1 ranking with a fourth place finish at the Bridgestone. He would, however, have had have to shot a 66 in the final round, but instead skied to a horrendous 78, one worse than Tiger Woods’ fourth round disaster.

Mickelson’s final round stats showed that he hit only six greens in regulation, and just one on the front nine. He’s also finished MC, 48t, 46t in his last three starts. Despite his awful play of late, Ladbrokes now has him as the favorite to win the PGA at 14/1.

Woods and Rory McIlroy share the next position at 16/1. That’s right! After perhaps a 14 year run as the perennial favorite at the majors, Woods is no longer, replaced by the man who can’t seem to snag his number one ranking.

Absent from the list of sub 20/1 favorites is Lee Westwood, who’s injury to his leg forced him to withdraw. So, what this means is that, going into the PGA, we have Mickelson, Woods, who finished 78t at Firestone, and McIlroy as the top three.

From this group, the obvious pick is McIlroy, who broke 70 all four rounds last week to finish 9t even though he did not hit the ball particularly well. McIlroy has his last shot to do something special at Glory’s Last Shot: if he wins, his first major will come at a younger age that Woods’ - by one whole day! Woods was 21 and 104 days when he won the 1997 Masters. McIlroy will be 21 and 103 days on Sunday!

As recently as the U.S. Open, the favorites put on a credible performance, with Els in third and Woods and Mickelson tying for fourth. At the British Open, they all finished back in the pack, and gave every indication at Firestone that they would not be in the hunt at Whistling Straits.

A month ago I wrote these words as part of my preview for the British Open: Anyone who tells you they have a bead on the probable winner of this week’s British Open is a fool or a liar. I feel even more convinced that picking the winner of the PGA is like picking one number in roulette. There are perhaps 40 players who could get hot and win, but picking that player is a guessing game.

Do you go with the winners of the last two majors, Graeme McDowell (50/1), who finished a respectable 22t at Firestone or Louis Oosthuizen (9t, 66/1) based on the fact that they are hot? Or how about Hunter Mahan (33/1), who won for the second time this year with a hot closing round. Johnny Miller once picked him for superstardom based on his strong driving. Who knows?

Among the others listed at 50/1 or better we have Padraig Harrington (20/1), Steve Stricker (25/1), Ernie Els (33/1), Retief Goosen (33/1), Justin Rose (40/1), Jim Furyk (40/1), Sean O’Hair (40/1), Paul Casey (50/1), Martin Kaymer (50/1), Luke Donald (50/1), Dustin Johnson (50/1), Matt Kuchar (50/1), Ross Fisher (50/1), Nick Watney (50/1), and Jeff Overton (50/1).

See any names out of this bunch on which you’d care to bet a C note? If I was forced to take one, it would be Kaymer. He’s won three times on the European Tour in the last 15 months and he’s finished in the top 10 in the last two majors. Those are not exactly rock solid reasons for picking him, but that’s the point - there is no one that you can be sure of. And, with Woods’ game is the tank, this could be the most difficult major in the last 50 years to handicap, much less pick the winner.

As for Whistling Straits, based on the stats from 2004, shows that it could be one of the most democratic of all major venues. In the three way playoff we had the long hitting Vijay Singh, the winner, who ranked third in driving distance, and Justin Leonard (45th) and Chris DiMarco (61st). In the top 12 we had GIR specialists (Singh, 2nd), DiMarco (3t), and Robert Allenby (6t ). We also had the scramblers, including Leonard (49t), Els (30t), and Chris Riley (63t!).

So, when you combine a course that seems to favor no particular style of golf with a field devoid of favorites, you have golf’s ultimate guessing game, and an excellent to make some big bucks should your pick come through.