Capelle On Golf

In the recent past Phil Mickelson was the only player who could overtake Tiger Woods for the #1 ranking with just one big week. But now, after Lee Westwood earned 60 big points for his Silver Medal at the Open, both he and Phil could zoom past Woods with a single winning performance.

Top Three in the WGR  (7/19/10)
10.14  Tiger Woods
9.38  Phil Mickelson
9.15  Lee Westwood

The next start for the Big Three will be at the Bridgestone at Firestone, followed by the PGA. Because the Bridgestone is a WGC event with a strong field, it awards 76 points for first. The PGA awards 100 points to the winner. So, with so many points for the taking in just two weeks and the closeness of the rankings, the potential for a shakeup at the top has never been greater.

You know how, as the foot ball season winds down to the playoffs, there are seemingly dozens of possible results - if Team X does this, Team Y will or won’t get into the playoffs. The same holds true now with the WGR and the Big Three. If Lee finishes first, and Tiger finishes in X and Phil in Y, then this will be the new order at the top. Suffice to say that there are numerous possibilities, so the Bridgestone and PGA offers fans a juicy subplot to go along with the tournament’s themselves as well as the last minutes to secure a spot on the Ryder Cup.

The WGR are full of quirks due the number of points awarded at certain events, player’s differing schedules, and the aging system. As a result, Woods retains his position at the top even though he has been far from the world’s best player in 2010.

To eliminate the inequities mentioned above, I decided to evaluate the Big Three based only on their record in the majors (the events that really matter) using the WGR’s two year window. The table shows the total number of points earned without allowing for aging. Mickelson, who missed the 2009 British Open to stay home with wife Amy, still leads Westwood by nearly nine points. Woods, who missed the 2008 PGA because of his fourth knee surgery, is a distant third. Note: majors played in rating period is in parentheses.

2008 PGA Through 2010 British Open - Points Not Aged
215.23  Mickelson (7)
206.45 Westwood (8)
154.75  Woods (7)

This table shows the Big Three’s points in the majors using the aging system employed by the WGR. With the “what have you done lately” method, Westwood, with his plethora of recent seconds and thirds in the majors, enjoys a 12 point lead over Mickelson. Woods, despite his ties for fourth in the Masters and U.S. Open, lags far behind in third.

2008 PGA Through 2010 British Open - Points Aged
173.24  Westwood (8)
161.21  Mickelson (7)
111.94  Woods (7)

So, with due respect to the WGR, who really is the #1 player in the world? As you can see, the subject is ripe for debate. However, if one of our trio gets hot over those two weeks in August, he could well end the debate - at least for now.