Capelle On Golf

Louis Oosthuizen, the 27 year old South African whose major championship resume consists of a 73rd and seven missed cuts, was supposed to shoot himself out of contention on Saturday, like his playing partner Mark Calcavecchia, who shot a 77.

Instead, after three putting the first hole, the smooth swinging Oosthuizen quickly settled down, reeling off five straight pars before playing the last 12 in four under par with nary a bogey. As a result, he’ll take a four shot lead into the final over Paul Casey, making the tournament his to win or lose.

Casey, 32, has not done much in the majors either, but at least has four top tens to his credit, and he finally won on the PGA Tour this year at Houston. He will be playing with Oosthuizen, so he can directly apply some pressure and take the top spot should his opponent falter.

In third, seven back, is Martin Kaymer, the 25 year old German who has piled up an impressive record the last few years on the European Tour, winning five times in the last three seasons. He’s ranked 13th in the world, and he’s finished 6t, MC, 8t in the last three majors. In short, he’s quietly positioned himself to win his first major. His third round 68 consisted of 17 GIR, six birdies, and only 31 putts despite his high GIR figures.

The group at seven under includes Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson, and Alejandro Canizares. I think it is safe to write Canizares off considering that he has one lone win six years ago on the European Tour, and has done nothing in the majors. Westwood, arguably the best player to have never won a major, still has a shot should the top two implode. He’s long, a great ball striker, and he’s over due to win his first major. Stenson is one of the streakiest players, and he appears to be on his game this week. His third round of 67 was aided by an eagle on the 465 yard 13th. He won the 2009 PLAYERS, and he’s finished 3t, 4t, 38t, 9, 13t, 6t in the majors from the 2008 Open through the 2009 PGA, so he’s proven that he can contend. Now, can he win?

The last player who probably has any hope of winning is Dustin Johnson, who is nine back of Oosthuizen. Johnson obviously needs him to fold and a strong round to win. But who knows - maybe the golf gods have something in store for him after his disappointing final round performance at the U.S. Open.

Tiger Woods claimed that he hit the ball well, but his putting once again let him down. After his lackluster round of 73, he trails by 12 shots and has no chance of winning. As for his putting, it is clear that he has lost the magic with the most important club, maybe like Tom Watson did when he stopped winning majors at age 34. As for Phil Mickelson, his bid to win the Open and to take over the number one ranking died when his long iron tee shot ventured out of bounds on the 16th. He followed this with a bogey on the Road Hole on his way to a 70.

Notable comeback department: After opening with a 63, Rory McIlroy ballooned to an 80, then bounced back to shoot a 69 in the third round to finish at -4.
Notable shot department: Miguel Angel Jimenez banked his ball off the wall and onto the green.

Score / Player / WGR / Odds
-15  Louis Oosthuizen (54) 4/5
-11  Paul Casey (10) 5/2
-8  Martin Kaymer (13) 14/1
-7  Alejandro Canizares (124) 40/1
-7  Lee Westwood (3) 14/1
-7  Henrik Stenson (33) 20/1
-6  Dustin Johnson (29) 50/1