Capelle On Golf

Like a marathon race, as the U.S. Open heads into the final stretch, the vast majority have turned into stragglers, leaving only six players in the hunt. Below are the contenders and their vital stats.

Sc.–GIR—Odds
207—40—10/11—Dustin Johnson
210—31—9/2——Graeme McDowell
212—34—3/1—-Tiger Woods
213—27—50/1—Gregory Havret
213—35—12/1—Ernie Els
214—34—12/1—Phil Mickelson

Dustin Johnson
If the same Dustin Johnson who’s dominated Pebble Beach, tee to green, shows up for the final round, this tournament is over. His ball striking has clearly been the best in the field with tournament leading 40 GIR including several hit in under regulation. Examples: on Saturday he ran a 3-iron to within 10 feet on the short par 4 fourth, setting up an eagle. He two putted 6 for birdie 4. And he hit the 18th with a drive and a 6-iron for yet another two putt birdie. That’s four under golf on three holes that he hit in under regulation, a separator that does not show up in the stats. Johnson’s problem, however, is that this is the U.S. Open and Tiger Woods will be in hard pursuit. Though those who know him well say Johnson is a “flatliner”, meaning he feels no pressure, but that remains to be seen on a major Sunday. Still, I look for a strong performance from the field’s longest hitter. He’s better than even money (10/11) to win the title.

Graeme McDowell
This Irishman has been doing it with smoke and mirrors as attested  by his 31 GIR, second worst among the top six. He closed weakly with bogeys on two of his last three holes, and many question whether his super fast swing can hold up the final round pressure of a major. He did Johnson a favor by remaining ahead of Woods, which means that Johnson will not have to play with the great intimidator.

Tiger Woods
One day Woods trashes the greens of the hallowed Pebble Beach, calling them “awful.” Then, two days later, he makes everything in shooting a 66 to jump into contention. Where is the justice in that? Here is a sampler of the benevolence of the golf gods: on 9 he makes a slippery 8 footer to save par; on 11 a twisty 15 foot birdie putt drops; on 13 another birdie putt of about the same length finds the cup: on 16 a 12-15 footer with several inches of breaks dives into the hole; finally, on 17 he aimed 6 feet above the hole on a 15 footer and darned if this most improbable putt of all didn’t find the cup. He completed his charge by blasting a 3 wood onto the 18th green for a two putt birdie. I see Woods easily blowing by McDowell, turning this into a two man showdown with Johnson.

Gregory Havret
Havret has used the broom to putt his way onto the leaderboard, having hit only 50% of the greens in regulation. He’s #391 in the WGR, which says something right there, and he’s paired with Woods, so I expect the rabbit in the final six to quickly fall  off the pace. His chance is no chance.

Ernie Els
Els seems to be doing what he does best in the majors since winning his last at the 2002 British Open - put up a nice showing. He’s got 13 top 10s since that win, but has seldom contended strongly. This week looks to be no different. At even par he’s within range should the leaders falter.

Phil Mickelson
Mickelson tossed away shots on the front nine like confetti, turning what should have been a 68 into a 73. He three putted the first hole. His second on the long second hit next to the pin and bounded over the green. He three putted 6 for a disappointing par. And an errant tee shot lead to a double bogey on 9. Now he’s seven back and in need of a strong closing round and some held from above on the leaderboard. If I had to pick a number, I would say a 65 could do it. He’s capable, he unpredictable, and he just might crank up the engines and explode for one of the greatest final rounds in U.S. Open history a la Arnold Palmer (65 in 1960) and Johnny Miller (63 in 1973). Wouldn’t that be fun to see!