Capelle On Golf

A whopping 156 hopefuls will tee it up at the U.S. Open on Thursday - all fine players. But the truth of the matter is that you could send the 118 players at odds of 125-1 or greater back home before play begins and the winner would remain unchanged.

Of the remaining 38, most are long shots or no shots. I have reviewed the 18 listed by Ladbrokes at 50-1 or less. Of these, the winner should emerge from the eight names in blue.

The U.S. Open is the toughest major to win, but, ironically, it has nothing to do with depth of the field.

(8 = odds of 8-1, etc.)

8   Tiger Woods - Woods is in a slump, and there is no sign that it will end at the Open. He could be pressing to win majors now, his major’s slump at 5 and counting. And he’s seems to be in mentally out of sorts as indicated by his defensive and off kilter responses at the press conference. Still, he’s Tiger Woods, so he can never be counted out. He won in 2008 when he had no business even playing, so he might yet conjure up some magic. When he won in 2000 power was his ally. Now, ironically enough, he has a better chance of winning because power is no longer needed at this year’s set up.

8   Phil Mickelson - If there was bet for place or show, I’d advise you to bet the farm, condo, whatever. But to get that elusive W, Phil needs to deal with perhaps his most pressurized major of his career: (1) He just turned 40, a time when major winning all but stops, even for the greats. Yes, he’s fitter just like so many others, but that means little when a 40 year olds nerves kick in at crunch time. So, he must feel his time is now. (2) He downplayed the significance of winning an Open for his career in the Tuesday press conference, but that was to lessen the pressure. First Open pressure can be suffocating and no one knows it better than he. (3) Attempting to win the second leg of the Grand Slam will exert a pressure all its own. Should he pull this off, he would be only the fourth player of the Modern Era to do so, the others being Nicklaus, Palmer, and Woods. (4) The chance to pass Woods and secure
The 1# WGR no matter where Woods might finish.

12  Lee Westwood - If ever a player was due and capable, it is he. And he’s on his game, having won last week at Memphis. But the questions remains: can he close the big ones, or is he merely a great contender.
25  Padraig Harrington - Golf’s mad scientist may yet stumble upon a new major winning formula.
25  Rory McIlroy - After Quail Hollow, you’ve got to believe that his time is coming, and soon.
25  Dustin Johnson - Gets a vote of confidence based on his win at the AT&T earlier this year, his athleticism, his length, and his streakiness.
33   Ernie Els - Though he finished 2t in 2000, I just can’t see him winning at PB.
33  Jim Furyk - This grinder is overdue for a second major. With his accuracy, PB should be a good fit.
33 Luke Donald - Arguably the hottest player in the world, this stylish swinger should be contending in the majors, but don’t look for a win at PB.
40 Steve Stricker - Has lost momentum of late.
40  Ian Poulter - Improving, but don’t yet see the mental strength to win a major.
40 Nick Watney - I have no idea why he’s listed this close to the favorites. Good player, but not a major winning kind of player yet.
40  Hunter Mahan - MC last two events, but this accurate driver showed heart winning in Phoenix earlier this year. Also closed with a 62 at Congressional last year to finish a shot back of Woods. A viable long shot.
50 Camilo Villegas - Another of the young players who still needs seasoning.
50 Retief Goosen - Long putter users don’t win majors.
50 Geoff Ogilvy - Too erratic off the tee to win at PB. Too cool, seems to lack drive. Great interview, though.
50 Paul Casey - European stalwart has never been much of a factor in the majors - his best in the U.S. Open is a 10t in 2007.
50  Bo Van Pelt - He’s had four top fives in his last six PGA Tour events, but has done nothing in the majors to suggest that he’s ready to win one.