The media is having a field day pontificating on the ramifications of Tiger Woods’ return to golf. How his comeback looks to the world, his new PR guru, the timing of the announcement, quotes from the other players, what’s up with Elin, Tim Finchem’s bla bla, how it’s going to be bigger than Obama’s inauguration on TV, how the town of Augusta is going to be swallowed up whole, etc, etc.
But what about the most fundamental question of all? Can he win his fifth Masters? Will he win it? No chance, regardless of what the bookies think (Ladbroke’s has him at 3-1 as of this morning) Here’s why.
1 - He’s not impervious to pressure
People assume that Woods is impervious to pressure, that it brings out his best game. Sometimes, but not always. One example: You can bet he put everything he had into the 2009 PGA, and yet he came up empty in the clutch. And that was then - a regular, run of the mill pre scandal major. Another example: he tried his guts out at the 2006 Masters, but could not make the putts fall when he needed to, enabling Phil Mickelson to win.
The 2010 Masters will be the first of Woods’ post scandal majors, with no transitionary event to get used to the madness, and to answer the questions he’ll surely be asked. As such, Woods’ return to golf will carry with it far more pressure than he’s ever played under before at a time when his psyche should be at its weakest ever prior to a major (unless, of course, he is a sociopath and nothing ever bothers him). The pressures he faces:
- Woods carries the expectations of a new season with him to the first tee of every Masters.
- He knows that winning the first major can lead to a great season (2002 - 2 majors, 2005, 2 majors).
- Winning the Masters gives him a shot at the Grand Slam, which would make him the Best Ever when combined with his 14 other titles.
- A win would pull him one closer to Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors.
- A win would draw him to within one of Nicklaus’ record of 6 green jackets.
- His drive for perfection puts him under intense pressure on every shot.
- Unless Williams’ “I knew nothing” was for Elin’s benefit, and thus a Tiger inspired ploy to retain him on Team Tiger, their relationship will put an additional strain on this year’s event.
- He wants to end his major’s drought, which will reach 22 months in April.
- And, of course, the whole world is watching and dissecting this extremely private man’s every move.
2 - Ongoing issues with Elin
During his speech one month ago he said his family is his number one priority. If we are to take him at his word, then he’s got to be worried about whether Elin is going to stay or go. Despite any assurances she may have given him, it would seem that nothing could, as of now, be certain.
Conspiracy theory: Elin lowers the boom on Tiger right before the Masters, possibly as a payback, taking his mind completely off his game. Hey, this is as believable as anything else that’s circulating about America’s most widely watched couple.
3 - The unanswered questions = unwanted baggage
Woods knows the questions are coming - about what really happened on 11/27, Dr. Galea and PEDs, why he’s keeping Williams, his therapy, was he (is he) addicted to Vicodin, what did Elin really do that night, etc. etc. He should hold a press conference well before the Masters and clear the air, but that does not fit with his modus operandi. Instead, he will hold a press conference at the Masters and begin it with a control statement, such as: “I know there is ongoing curiosity about issues in my private life, but we are here for golf this week - nothing can or should interfere with the celebration of golf that is the Masters. So, I welcome questions only about golf.” By failing to clear the air, Woods will continue to carry this baggage with him, possibly to the detriment of his vaunted mental game.
4 - His record at Augusta of late is not as great as it appears
The hangover from Woods’ 12 shot win 13 years ago continues to cloud people’s perceptions of his ability to dominate at Augusta National. In truth, his record at Augusta is, by his standards, quite ordinary over the last seven years. He’s only won once, and he was lucky to get that one in 2005 - he made that ridiculously lucky chip at the 16th, then Chris DiMarco’s chip on the 72nd hole lipped out. The only other one that he contended strongly for was the 2007 edition, but he failed to make the putts that counted on the back nine.
Post Big Years
2003 - 9 back - 15t
2004 - 11 back - 22t
Woods in the Haney Era
2005 Won - playoff after bogeying the last two hole of regulation
2006 3 back - 3t - missed the putts that Mickelson made on Sunday
2007 2 back - 2t - couldn’t mount a charge in the high scoring conditions
2008 3 back - 2 - only this close because Immelman double bogeyed 16
2009 4 back - 6t - never a factor
In short, Woods with several tune up events and far less pressure has been unable to get the job done in six of the last seven. Now, with no competitive golf going into the event and an airliner full of baggage, there is no way he can pull this off.
5 - Heckling from the crowd
I get a kick out of those who say that the controlled environment at the Masters makes it the perfect place for Woods to return to golf. Maybe there will be less media scrutiny because TMZ and company will not be allowed on the premises. But as for the fans, their overall superior behavior entirely misses the point: it only takes one or two bad apples to ruin a player’s chances. Here’s why: The typical Masters is decided by three shots or less.
The last 20 years:
4 in a Playoff
4 by 1 shot
6 by 2 shots
4 by 3 shots
1 by 5 shots
1 by 12 shots
That’s 70% by two shots or less, and 90% by three shots or less. In short, the winning margin, even for Woods (with one exception), is very small.
If one or two hecklers scream out during Woods’ shots on one or more occasions, that could be enough to turn a win into a second or third. Yes, 99.9% of the crowd will be well behaved - but that rogue element could be Woods’ undoing - and there is nothing that can be done about them except to throw them out - after their deed has been done.
Conspiracy theory: One misguided fan out to make a name for himself (think streakers at ball games or the horn blower at the curling finals at the Olympics) might risk his day at the Masters for the thrill of costing Woods a Masters.
6 - The other guys really can play great golf
There are a number of superb golfers who can win the Masters, whether Woods contends or not. They don’t all choke at crunch time, though it sometimes seems that way. One or more of the favorites or a member the field will get hot. And history shows that, other than that fluke blowout 13 years ago, Woods has failed every year since to blowout the competition. So, Woods at best, could win a hotly contested Masters, but this assumes that he can drive the ball reasonably well (not likely given the rust and his swing flaws), that he can make the key putts (he’s missing them in the majors now), and that he can close the deal (again, no certainty, post 2009 PGA).
Everyone is counting down the days to the Masters - only 22 to go. We can hardly wait until it all unfolds: the Tiger Woods Comeback Story, to be followed by the story of the 2010 Masters Champion, who will almost certainly not be named Woods.
No matter because the Big Picture looks bright again for fans of the great quest. Woods is back in the game, and come June at Pebble Beach, he may just be ready to resume his climb up Mount Nicklaus. Now that’s what I really care about. How about you?
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6 responses so far ↓
1 BD // Mar 17, 2010 at 9:52 am
Tremendous post — so much food for thought.
I wouldn’t say Woods has no chance to win. He’s still a great golfer and obviously has the experience factor. There are a lot of guys in the Masters’ I’d put in the “can’t win” column ; Tiger isn’t one of them.
But let’s define “win.” Ordinarily, that would mean a Green Jacket. In this case, I would say the jacket really is secondary to simply demonstrating he can resume a normal life on the PGA Tour.
If that is indeed his primary objective, then starting with the Masters makes all the sense in the world. Whatever his first event is, it will go a long way in determining how he will be treated in subsequent events. The Masters presents the best possible chance of ensuring he is treated civilly by the gallery, at least on camera. On the other hand, if he had started at Bay Hill, and some loudmouths managed to make an embarrassing spectacle, that could well have encouraged loudmouths everywhere to do the same thing, even at Augusta.
The Masters gives Tiger the best chance to avoid being heckled to death because the crowds there are going to be more sensitive to the history and tradition of that event, and because the people running it simply won’t tolerate even the threat of obnoxious behavior.
I doubt very much that a lone wolf-type heckler will decide to take it upon himself to shout out something rude at a key moment in an effort to deny Woods another Green Jacket. While I think the public overwhelmingly disapprove of Tiger’s conduct, very few people, I think, would be inclined to make such an outrageoous public demonstration of their disapproval. That really would be the point at which the heckler lowered himself to the level of the hecklee. If there’s heckling to be heard, I would much more expect to see it on the practice range or while Tiger is moving from green to tee.
As for actually winning the Green Jacket, again, I agree it’s unlikely, mainly because it’s always less than a 50-50 proposition and because he simply hasn’t played any competitive golf for a lot of months. But I don’t agree he is under any particular competitive pressure to win this thing. The pressuure will be on doing what he can to make it as normal a week as possible.
2 Phil // Mar 17, 2010 at 11:50 am
Hi BD, thanks for the compliment. Yes, he has a chance - after the 2008 US Open, he can never be entirely counted out. I just think the odds are a lot longer than 4-1. As for a non winning objective, Woods has said that he always plays to win, but this time it could be an exception. Show up, do his best, get his bearings, and maybe the stars will align in his favor.
I maintain that, in a gallery of 5,000-10,000 there will surely be an extremist or two who feels it is their duty to partake in some fan administered justice. I surely hope not, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility entirely.
3 BD // Mar 17, 2010 at 12:57 pm
I agree the chance of it can’t be ruled out completely. Still, thinking back on the few PGA events I’ve attended, even if I had wanted to make a big scene in order to get on TV, I’m not sure how easy it would have been to do it. For certain, it would have required getting inside the ropes, which would simply come across on TV as a pathetic attempt by a middle-aged guy to physically attack Tiger, followed perhaps by a close-up of said middle-aged guy lying in a crumpled mass with Steve Williams’ footprint on his face.
4 Cam // Mar 20, 2010 at 1:25 am
Great read.
I am looking forward to the Masters to see what Tiger does and just because it’s the Masters. The best tournament in golf.
My curiosity is all about who will be paired with Tiger for rounds 1 & 2. I doubt many pros will be putting up their hand for that tee slot. Playing in a major must be hard enough without the awkwardness of being paired with Woods.
If I were Tiger i think i would want Stricker or maybe one of the older guys playing by right of having a greenie. What you think?
5 Phil // Mar 20, 2010 at 7:17 am
Cam, thank you.
You brought up an interesting question about the pairing. I think Tiger’s preference depends on which version shows up at Augusta. Old Tiger would not want to play with friends, the New Tiger might. I plan to write a lot more on this, especially when the pairings are announced.
6 Cam // Mar 20, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Yeah i know he prefers to play with guys he’s not close with, but maybe now he will need a friend with him.
Keep up the good work.
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