I just don’t get it, and neither does anybody in golf except for the man who hit the shot - Rickie Fowler.
As he approached his second shot on the par 5 15th hole of the W.M. Phoenix Open Fowler was in desperate need of a birdie. He had completed the hard work, piping a clutch drive 305 yards down the gut. Playing lift, clean, and tee it up, he could have any kind of lie he wanted for the remaining 230 yards. In essence, he had reduced the par 5 to a long par 3, and no pro ever lays up on a par 3 since they took Cypress Point out of the rotation for the AT&T Pebble Beach in 1992.
Fowler, who was raised on motocross, is known to play fast and aggressive. But he slowed down, pondered his fate, then bunted the ball 152 yards down the fairway, setting up an 80 yard wedge shot. Mind you, this is a player who hit 16 greens on Sunday in crunch time and tied for fifth in GIR for the week.
His wedge shot spun back off the front of the green and he had to eventually cozy in a 4’, 2” putt just to save par! Naturally he went on to lose by one shot to Hunter Mahan, who closed with a 65 to Fowler’s 68, so all fingers pointed at his strategic blunder.
Some said it was a business decision. Following that line of thinking, let’s look at the numbers. First off, the worst case scenario: he hits it in the water, drops out in three, pitches on, two putts, makes bogey. This would drop him from solo second into a tie for second with Y.E. Yang. His paycheck drops from $648k to $528k. Big deal. His money for the year would still be $755,431, about $90k above what it took to make the top 125 in 2009.
Fowler earned 33.60 WGR points, shooting up to #77 from #192. If he made bogey, that would have cost him 5.6 points. Again, not a big deal as he still needs about 60 more points to move into the top 50 to qualify for the Masters.
Now, if he had gone for the green and made birdie, he might have won the tournament in a playoff - or perhaps Mahan would have felt the additional heat and hit his drive in the water on 18. As it was, he missed going in the lake by a few yards, then struggled to make par.
A win would have given Fowler his ticket to Augusta, the additional WGR points would have elevated him to #52, his paycheck would have grown by $432k and, most importantly, he’d have the W monkey off his back. Add it all up and Fowler had a lot more to gain than lose by going for it. Let’s hope next time in a similar position he does.
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1 response so far ↓
1 MikeZ // Mar 3, 2010 at 6:39 am
OK, I’ll admit it, young Fowler is starting to grow one me! And here’s my take on the lay-up …
One thing you have said, Phil, about Rickie’s game is that he thinks his way around the golf course like a veteran. Another positive is that he plays fast – and those two things don’t necessarily go hand-in-hand. I wonder if Rickie simply got caught in a moment of OVERthinking.
I’m of the mind that laying up isn’t always a bad or cowardly thing, even when there’s a lot on the line. Sometimes it’s the smart play, the best path to birdie. It’s how Zach Johnson won the Masters, for instance. So when I first heard about Fowler’s play I thought “good for him, he played the shot he thought was best under circumstances, and didn’t give into the sometimes knee-jerk ‘go-for-it’ attitude.” But then the more I read about the circumstances (I like how you termed it, Phil, that he was basically facing a long par-3), I became perplexed as well.
But maybe he had a moment of doubt. Maybe he saw something he didn’t like about the shot. Maybe it was just a negative thought he didn’t want in his head when he went for the green. Maybe this was a moment when he *should* have taken a few extra moments to make his shot selection.
Let’s remember he’s only 21, only four tournaments into his first full season as a pro! Despite what he said afterward about making the right decision, I’ll wager he is kicking himself about it now. He’ll certainly learn from it. His nature is to play confidently and quickly, and I’ll bet his gut said “go for it” while his brain told him to “play smart.” Sometimes, the brain needs to listen to the gut. Sometimes, vice-versa. With more seasoning, he’ll find the right balance, I’m sure.
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