Capelle On Golf

Looking back at 1974, Jack Nicklaus’ thirteenth season on tour, it would not have been hard to see the winners coming in all four majors even though none were named Nicklaus.

Masters winner Gary Player had already won six majors. US Open winner Hale Irwin finished 4t at the Masters, three back of Player, and had a 9t at the previous year’s PGA. Player won his third British Open and then Lee Trevino won his fifth major at the PGA. Meanwhile Nicklaus’ major’s line for ’74 was 4t, 10t, 3rd, and 2nd.

With Tiger Woods in his thirteenth major’s season as a pro, the balance of power rests squarely at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to the hyper competitive 1974. Of course, it is easy to see Tiger Woods winning. Heck, it’s hard to imagine him not winning. Certainly British oddsmaker Ladbrokes thinks so as they had him at the ridiculously short odds of 6/4 on Sunday evening.

And we know that someone other than Tiger can win a major because it’s happened three times already this year. But in each case (including Angel Cabrera, the 2007 US Open winner) it was nearly impossible to see their win coming. Lucas Glover? No way. Stewart Cink? The world knew he lacked the killer instinct prior to the Open.

Apparently Ladbrokes agrees with the weakness that permeates the ranks of the world’s best because Phil Mickelson, the second choice, is at 14/1. While I have no records to base this on, I think this could be the widest gap between Tiger and the second ranked favorite prior to any major.

Next up is Padraig Harrington at 20/1, which is much lower that his odds would have been if he hadn’t shown signs of life at the Bridgestone. Then we have Anthony Kim, Jim Furyk, Lee Westwood, Retief Goosen, Sergio Garcia, and Steve Stricker, all at 33/1.

Among the names I’ve mentioned so far excluding Tiger, can you see any of them winning this week? Do you believe in any of them enough to place a wager on one of them? No? I thought so. And it only gets worse as you go down the list.

The phenom Rory McIlroy and the oldster Vijay Singh are at 40/1. Masters winner Cabrera and two consecutive Euro Tour winner Martin Kaymer are at 66/1. And on it goes. Tiger vs. The Field. Tiger vs. the Longshots.

Despite Tiger’s two consecutive wins following his MC at the Open, I believe that he’s still no better than Ladbroke’s odds to win. In other words, the field’s got a 60% chance of winning. But for the life of me I can’t see which one of them might do it.
Who among the Top 10 has got game right now, three days before the PGA, based on their finish at Firestone? The closest any of them finished to Tiger was six shots. And five of the nine were 12 or more shots off the pace.

The World Golf Rankings Top 10 –
PGA odds and strokes back of Woods at Firestone
6/4 Tiger Woods (1)
14/1 Phil Mickelson (2) - 19
40/1 Paul Casey (3) - WD
40/1 Kenny Perry (4) – 9
33/1 Sergio Garcia (5) - 12
33/1 Steve Stricker (6) – 6
40/1 Henrik Stenson (7) - 13
40/1 Geoff Ogilvy (8) - 12
50/1 Stewart Cink (9) - 6
33/1 Jim Furyk (10) - 18