Capelle On Golf

Let’s see, who’s got a good shot at winning the British Open, which begins next Thursday?

That’s a tough one because we’ve a field of 156 players and the world of pro golf is now supposedly populated with so many great players. Yeah, right.

The sad reality is that there is only one name that stands out: Tiger Woods, as if you didn’t know that already. Woods’ knee is fine, he’s hitting it long and straight off the tee, the rest of his game is in good shape, and he wants to extend his streak to five of years with at least one major. So, it appears that the only thing that could stop him from winning his fourth Open is his putter.

Indeed, the 139th British Open could be the least competitive since Tom Morris, Sr. won the 1891 edition by thirteen shots! To understand why, let’s consider the chances of the World Golf Ranking’s Top 20.

Tiger is currently at 7/4 odds. Enough said. Among the next 19, two players (Phil Mickelson and Robert Karlsson) are not playing. Of the other 17, only Padraig Harrington has ever won an Open, and only four others have won at least one major.

I’m going to break them into three categories: those with multiple majors, those with one major, and those with none.

The table below of the World Golf Ranking’s top 20 gives each player’s odds of winning the British Open (Ladbrokes as of Saturday), their current world ranking, and their best finish ever in the British Open.

Multiple Major Winners
7/4 Tiger Woods (W – three times) – See above.
40/1 (10) Vijay Singh – This putting challenged 46 year old’s days as a major player were over years ago as he’s recorded zero top tens in his last 12 majors.
25/1 (12) Padraig Harrington – The August edition of Golf Magazine features a bio on Bob Torrance, the architect of Harrington’s swing. Their relationship, which began in 1998, culminated in three majors in the 2007-08 seasons. Then Harrington made the curious decision to rebuild his swing. So far this year is a complete washout which includes missed cuts in his last five events.

One Major Winners
40/1 (6) Geoff Ogilvy – Mr. Cool may be too cool to win another major. His performance in the last dozen is indicating that his 2006 US Open title was the gift it appears to be, that he backed into it without the pressure of expecting to win.
40/1 (9) Jim Furyk – At age 39 he appears to max out every week as no one tries harder, but his game is just a bit lacking.
100/1 (17) Lucas Glover (27t – 07) – The oddsmakers are so impressed with our reigning US Open champion that he’s going off at odds of a C-note for a buck. They’re probably right!

No Majors
25/1 (3) Paul Casey (7t – 08) – There is still hope for Casey (31) to break out and become a multiple major winner, but he has no momentum going into the Open with MCs in his last two starts.
40/1 (4) Kenny Perry (8t – 03) – He’s great at winning tour events, but majors are a different ball game as he learned at Augusta. He has one top ten in his career in the Open, so don’t look for much from him this week.
20/1 (5) Sergio Garcia (2nd – 07) – He has two shots at winning a big four event before he turns 30. Should he fail to do so Garcia, with three seconds in the majors, could be on his way to becoming the Colin Montgomerie (five seconds) of his generation.
50/1 (8) Steve Stricker (7t – 08) – He’s finished in the top ten in his last two Opens and his game, at age 42, has never been better. But his best chances of winning a major would appear to be on American soil. UPDATE: He won the John Deere and is now 40/1.
33/1 (7) Henrik Stenson (08 – 3t) – After his post PLAYERS victory slump, he showed signs of life with a ninth in the US Open. When he’s right, he’s very capable of winning a real major.
40/1 (11) Camilo Villegas (39t – 08) – In ’09 he’s lost every bit of his career building momentum that he gained from his sterling 2008 campaign.
66/1 (13) Sean O’Hair (14t – 06) – He’s got a gorgeous swing, hits it long, is driven, finished 10t at the Masters, and appears to be coming into his own. But is he ready yet to contend in a major?
33/1 (14) Anthony Kim (7t – 08) – Kim proved in the final round of the AT&T that he’s not close yet to being a major contender, much less a rival to Tiger’s supremacy. His make’em/miss’em quick putting style is not well suited to the final round of a major nor is his penchant for taking foolish chances off the tee.
25/1 (16) Ian Poulter (2 – 08) – He’s tied for fourth favorite though he has but two career top tens in the majors. Still, he’s won seven times on the European Tour.
25/1 (18) Lee Westwood (4 – 04) – Golf has been waiting forever for Westwood (36) to fulfill his potential and win a major. He did come within a shot of a berth in the playoff at last year’s US Open, but he’s fared poorly in his last four majors.

50/1 (19) Martin Kaymer – He just beat Westwood in a playoff to win the Open de France, restoring a bit of luster to his status as an up and comer. UPDATE: He won the Scottish Open for his second straight win. He’s now at 33/1.

20/1 (20) Rory McIlroy (42t – 07) – Here’s all you need to know about the sad state of competitive golf: the 20th ranked player in the world is a 20 year old who has never won a PGA Tour event and who’s best in a major is a 10t, and yet he is the second favorite among the oddsmakers (along with Garcia) to win the Open!

After considering the list, the conclusion became obvious: Tiger will win, or the Open will be won by just about any one of the 48 non Tiger’s who are going off at 100/1 or lower! So, if you like surprise winners, chances are good that you’ll be “treated” to one next Sunday afternoon.