Capelle On Golf

After his superlative play at the Memorial it is no surprise that everyone on the planet expects Tiger Woods to record his 15th major come Sunday at Bethpage Black. But just in case he falters or someone else gets hot, we could have a winner not named Tiger.

So, for those of you who are inclined to wager a drink or a dinner on our nation’s championship, I offer the form chart below. It includes the top 10 ranked players in the world, those who Ladbroke’s think are 50/1 shots or better, and two more who deserve a look based on their play this year.

The Top 10 in the World Golf Rankings
7/4 Tiger Woods (#1) – He appears to be back on his game, and if he drives it like at he did in winning the Memorial, he’s a lock for the top four, and a blowout is possible.
14/1 Phil Mickelson (#2) – Two wins in 2009 and that impressive front nine on Sunday at Augusta shows that golf’s number two still has some game. But he finished 59t at St Jude, indicating that he’s not totally focused on his game, which is no surprise. At the Open, his emotions could get the best of him as he is sure to get enormous support from the crowd.
25/1 Paul Casey (#3) – He had a poor Memorial (63t), but look for the long ball hitting Casey, a three time winner worldwide this year,  to rebound strongly at the Open. He’s got three top 10s in his last nine majors.
33/1 Sergio Garcia (#4) – He waggled his way to a fourth place in the 2002 Open at the Black. But just when he looked like he was going to conquer the world and finally win a major, he broke up with his girlfriend. He hasn’t been the same as he’s without a top 10 in his last 10 starts.
20/1 Geoff Ogilvy (#5) – A two time winner this year, Ogilvy shot a 63 at the Memorial before fading on the back nine on Sunday, ending with a 10t. Still, his putter can get red hot, as can his iron game. But can he drive it straight enough to contend? He has one top 10 in his last five majors.
50/1 Henrik Stenson (#6) – He won The PLAYERS with an impressive final round, and he finished 3t and 4t in the last two majors last season. But he appears to be still celebrating the Fifth Major because he’s missed the cut in his last three starts. Maybe super caddy Fanny will get him back on track. He hits it high and long, so if he’s on, he’s got the right kind of game to contend.
50/1 Kenny Perry (#7) – Can he recover from his meltdown at Augusta, or is he among those who can win tour events, but not majors? His best in four starts since the Masters is a 22t. Still, his long and accurate driving could make him a threat. He finished 45t last time at the Black.
33/1 Steve Stricker (#8) – His win three weeks ago at Colonial should give him a boost of sorely needed confidence, and he did well here in 2002, finishing 16t. He’s also registered five top 10s in his last 11 majors, so his presence on the leaderboard would be no surprise. But can he, at age 42, hang tough and win his first major? He probably wonders that as much as anyone.
40/1 Vijay Singh (#9) – He continues to be a fine tour player at age 46, winning three times last year and recording two top 10s in his last four starts. But as for the majors, he hasn’t contended in one since the 2006 Open, and I wouldn’t expect him to start this week.
20/1 Jim Furyk (#10) – This consistent,  straight hitting GIR machine has been back on his game of late with three consecutive top 10s and a 10t at the Masters. He is also coming off a second at Memorial. But he will have to be on his A+ game to keep up with the long high ball hitters at Bethpage.

Others at 50/1 or Less plus two
33/1 Padraig Harrington (#11) – He’s emerged as golf’s mystery man. Just when he looked like the next great rival to Tiger, Harrington started tinkering with a swing that helped him win three majors in 13 months. His last four starts have yielded a 49t and three MCs. But who knows? Maybe he’s close, as Tiger used to be.
40/1 Camilo Villegas (#12) – At the moment he appears to be another in the long list of breakout players who end up breaking down. After winning two FedEx Cup events last year Spiderman was poised to set the world on fire. But in his last seven starts he’s recorded zero top 10s.
40/1 Ernie Els (#16) – Els will turn 40 in October, so his time is growing short for adding to his three major legacy. Still, he finished 8t at the Memorial, showing a spark of life. Seven years ago at Bethpage he was 24t.
40/1 Retief Goosen (#24) – We keep hoping and waiting for this two time major champion to put his game back together, but it looks like he’s on the slow and steady decline. He missed the cut at the Masters and followed two MCs with a 29t at St. Jude.
40/1 Rory McIlroy (#18) – Too much hype and difficulties closing out rounds means it’s not yet his time to win the big ones.
40/1 Sean O’Hair (#13) – He was very impressive in winning at Quail Hollow seven weeks ago where he drove the ball like Tiger did at the Memorial. Still, he is coming off a minor injury and his wife is set to give birth to their third child any time now, so he’s got two good reasons not to be on top of his game.
50/1 David Toms (#36) – This 42 year old continues to grind away, hoping to bolster his resume enough to make him a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame. He’s got a major and 12 tour wins, including the Sony earlier this year, so an Open would get him with shouting distance. He’s also coming off a tie for second at the St. Jude.
50/1 Luke Donald (#22) – After suffering through wrist problems Donald is having a decent year with four top 10s including a second at the Hilton Head. At 31, it’s about time this Englishman blossomed into the star we’ve so long thought he would become when he entered the final round of the 2006 PGA tied with Woods for the lead.
66/1 Angel Cabrera (#26) – He’s the only man on the planet with a shot at the Grand Slam this year, and he’s won two majors out of the last eight, including the 2007 US Open. Sure, he might not be the most consistent player, but when he’s right, he’s proven he’s got the guts to close out majors. Call him golf’s Rodney Dangerfield because odds of 66 to 1 are a complete joke.
66/1 Brian Gay (#35) – I don’t know much about this guy, but he’s blown out two fields this year (by 10 and 5 shots) and he’s deadly accurate off the tee (he’s 3rd in fairways hit), so maybe he’s got a shot.