Capelle On Golf

The media is constantly reminding us that Tiger Woods is the ultimate closer because he’s won 14 of 14 majors when he’s held or shared the third round lead. But after witnessing his bogey-bogey close at the 2009 Masters, I decided to take a closer look at his perfect Sunday record.

Upon inspection, four categories emerged. In the top closing performances category Tiger finished strongly in a hotly contested event in three of his 14 major wins. Three times Tiger’s lost a third round lead and had to regroup and win a playoff. That’s not what you’d expect from the perfect closer.

Four times Woods has held huge leads going into Sunday, so those closes aren’t too impressive except for the fact that he didn’t do a Norman. Finally, Tiger has benefited from his opponent’s failures on four occasions, and only one of his wins in this group resulted from a strong final round (the 2006 PGA).

So, Tiger’s done well with the lead in the majors overall, but his record is far less impressive than it seems. Add to this his failure to ever win a major from behind after 54 holes and his performances when closing out a win, while superb, are not quite as good as the pundits would have us believe.

Top Three Closing Performances
2001 Masters Tiger held a one shot lead over Phil Mickelson after 54 holes. He shot a 68 to Mickelson’s 70 and won by two over David Duval (67).
2006 British Open Tiger held a one shot lead over Chris DiMarco going into Sunday’s play. Sergio Garcia, his playing partner, shot a 73 and Ernie Els scored a 71. DiMarco, playing ahead of Tiger, put the pressure on with a 68, and Tiger responded down the stretch while carding a 67.
2007 PGA Tiger held a three shot lead over Stephen Ames, who “closed” with a 76 and four over Woody Austin, who shot 67. Woods shot a solid 69 to win by two.

Three Lost Leads
2000 PGA Tiger held a one shot lead after 54, but lost it with a 67 to Bob May’s 66. Woods hit two of his three drives on the three playoff holes into the trees, and was extremely lucky to avoid disaster.
2005 Masters Tiger lost a three shot lead to Chris DiMarco’s 68 with bogeys on the last two holes for a 71 before winning a one hole playoff.
2008 US Open Tiger entered the final round with a one shot lead over Lee Westwood (73), and a two shot advantage over Rocco Mediate (71). Woods had to scramble on 18 after two poor shots with a good/lucky putt to shot a 73 to earn his spot in a playoff with Mediate, which he won on the 19th hole.
Note: Losing 54 hole leads is not great closing!

Four Big Leads  (4 shots plus)
1997 Masters Tiger entered the final round with a nine shot lead over Constantino Rocca. He shot 69 to win by 12 shots.
2000 US Open Woods lead Els by10 shots and won by 15 with a 67.
2000 British Open Tiger led by six shots over Thomas Bjorn, who shot a closing 71. Woods shot 69 to win by eight.
2002 US Open Tiger carried a four shot lead over Garcia (74), known as a non-closer, and three shots over Mickelson (70) and Jeff Maggert (72). Woods closed with a lackluster round of 72 to win by three over Mickelson.

Four Times Opponents Collapse
1999 PGA Woods held the third round lead with playing partner Mike Weir, who skied to a final round 80. Tiger carded a 72 to win by one over Garcia after nearly blowing a five shot lead on the back nine.
2002 Masters Woods was tied with Retief Goosen after 54 holes. Tiger closed with a solid 71, but Goosen, his playing partner, shot a 74 and applied no pressure
2005 British Open Tiger enjoyed a two shot lead over Jose Maria Olazabal and three strokes over Colin Montgomerie going into the last round. Tiger shot a 70 while his opponents, who were in the hunt at the turn, folded on the back nine. Olazabal finished with a 74 and Monty with a 72.
2006 PGA Tiger was tied with Luke Donald going into the last round. Donald fumbled his way to a 74 while Woods shot a 68 to win by five over Shaun Micheel.