Capelle On Golf

I first wrote about the favorites and long shots for this year’s Masters on April 3. I’ve since monitored the odds daily for any significant changes that might signal the public’s change in confidence for each player.

My thinking was based on the fact that football odds change in small increments in response to the flow of the money. A full point change is a significant change in the line and it signals a big change in sentiment. Football odds are computed by professional bookmakers who have this down to a science. For example, an injury to a key player will affect their calculations.

Now let’s get back to golf. Over the last six days the most dramatic turn of events was Paul Casey’s victory at Houston, showing he can win on US soil. His odds plummeted from 45/1 at one house (not Ladbrokes) to 25/1 (at Ladbrokes). And Mickelson’s MC may be responsible for his increase to 9/1 from 6/1. As for the other players below, I haven’t a clue as to why the odds for many of them have jumped over the last six days. As examples, Sergio Garcia went from 20/1 to 40/1 while Kenny Perry has skyrocketed to 100/1 from 66/1.

Maybe the odds were way too low to begin with. Or perhaps in this slow economy Ladbrokes needed to entice their customers to the window. Whatever. Compared to football, oddsmaking in golf is as sophisticated as blow to the head.

Unless Tiger wins as expected, lots of money will be made by those who pick one of the long shots, which include everyone else.

Below is my list of picks and pans. It gives their odds today and six days ago, and representative comments from my post on April 3. The list now includes all players who, at press time, are 50/1 or lower. The number in parentheses is their WGR. Good luck!

Picks
9/4 was 7/4—-Tiger Woods (1)
If his long game returns and he putts well, everyone else is playing for the silver.
9/1 was 6/1 Phil Mickelson (2)
Phil’s the logical second choice.
16/1 same— Padraig Harrington (5)
At these odds he’s worth a shot.
20/1 same—Geoff Ogilvy (4)
A solid pick.
25/1 was 45/1—Paul Casey (6)
New to this list, I suppose he, at these odds, is a good bet.
25/1 same— Retief Goosen (21)
He might be worth a shot.
40/1 same—Zach Johnson (24)
Zach is the best of the long shots.
40/1—Nick Watney (35)
New to the list. He’s got a W, 2, and a 4t in his last six starts.

Pans
33/1 same—Rory McIlroy (17)
As for winning, his time will have to wait.
40/1 was 20/1—Sergio Garcia (3)
It’s hard to see him donning the Green Jacket next Sunday.
40/1 was 50/1 Henrik Stenson (8)
Has yet to show he can be a factor.
50/1 was 25/1 Camilo Villegas (10)
His putting is spotty, which could be a problem on Augusta’s sloping greens.
50/1 was 25/1 Ernie Els (16)
It is hard to see Els winning his first Masters.
50/1 same— Robert Karlsson (9)
Even at these odds he’s a bad pick.
50/1—Lee Westwood (13)
New to the list. Having a mediocre season but did finish 11t at last year’s Masters.
66/1 was 25/1 Anthony Kim (14)
Golf’s poster boy challenger to the Woods Empire will have to wait for that breakthrough major.
66/1 was 33/1 Jim Furyk (15)
Spend your money elsewhere.
80/1 was 33/1 Vijay Singh (7)
There are several reasons to avoid Singh.
80/1 was 40/1 Adam Scott (22)
He’s never contended in a major, and this year’s Masters doesn’t look to be any different.
80/1 same— Trevor Immelman (32)
Immelman has done nothing in 2009 to indicate that he’ll put up a spirited defense of his title.
100/1 was 66/1 Kenny Perry (11)
He’s no major player.