USA Today ran the numbers, which revealed that if Sergio Garcia wins the WGC CA this week and Tiger Woods finishes 27th or worse, he will become the new #1 in the World Golf Rankings. This monumental achievement would end Tiger’s 195 week stay at the top. Big deal. If ever there was a story for a slow news day this is it.
Sergio’s ascent to the throne has been made possible only because Tiger’s played in only two tournaments since last year’s Masters. Since the US Open his average, which stood at 21.54, has steadily declined to 9.16 due to the aging of his points and no new points to replace them.
Of his 366.25 points, only the 4.42 he earned at the Match Play have full value. His US Open points have lost 29% of their original value, and his points for finishing second at the Masters have given up 38%. The points from 14 of the 22 events that make up his average have lost over 70% of their original value.
On the other hand, Garcia’s average has benefitted from a recent surge of good play. Of his current point total of 386.26, 72.8% of them have retained 70% or more of their original value.
One of the quirks of the WGR is that the divisor is no less than 40. Tiger’s average is 9.16, but if they divided his points by the number of events entered (22), his average would soar to 16.65, dwarfing Garcia’s 7.57.
Now Sergio should certainly be commended for rising to the number 2 spot, making him the best active player in the world since mid June of last year. But as for number one, it will not have much meaning until he earns it with Woods playing his normal schedule, and not from attrition.
In sum, Sergio will probably think it’s cool if he rises to the top this week, and the media will make a fuss about the new number one. But in the big picture, it means nothing to Sergio compared to the feeling he’ll get when he wins his first major title.
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3 responses so far ↓
1 BD // Mar 12, 2009 at 4:51 am
“One of the quirks of the WGR is that the divisor is no less than 40. Tiger’s average is 9.16, but if they divided his points by the number of events entered (22), his average would soar to 16.65, dwarfing Garcia’s 7.57.”
That’s definitely a flaw in the system. I can see having a minimum, but 40 is too high. It should be about 20. In Tiger’s case (lengthy injury), isn’t it a double whammy? Not only are his point totals discounted due to the passage of time, but his “average” points per event is no longer a true average due to the bogus divisor of 40.
It makes no sense to me that Tiger’s WGR totals should drop by more than half just because he was out rehabbing his knee for 8 or 9 months. Granted, he wasn’t winning any tournaments during that period, but he wasn’t losing any either. He’s still the standard against which the best golfers in the world are measured, and the WGR should reflect that.
2 Phil // Mar 12, 2009 at 7:37 am
BD, the second part of the double whammy is a problem with the system, and it exists for all players. The points age (decline), but the divisor for each particular event doesn’t. With computers they could program the divisor so it declines like the point values do.
As for the minimum, don’t use one, but do like baseball does - a player has to have a minimum number of plate appearances to be eligible for the batting title. Since we want Tiger in the rankings and we want him to play more, make it 36 (18 events a year).
3 BD // Mar 12, 2009 at 10:12 am
I guess I don’t agree with the idea that the WGR should be an instrument for coaxing elite golfers to play more events. Its paramount purpose is to establish how good the players are relative to one another. It appears the formula distorts the rankings by factoring in how often the players are teeing it up. Seems like maintaining one’s position on the money list ought to be sufficient incentive to play in a lot of events. Plus, in a case like Tiger’s, we’re talking about a player who was injured, not one who was simply taking time off.
Maybe the tweak should be to prorate the applicable divisor for players who are taking extended hiatuses from competition for medical/family reasons. Thus, no relief given for deciding to sit out the John Deere Classic, but if you have elbow surgery and can’t play for 6 months, they reduce the minimum divisor to 30.
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