Capelle On Golf

PGA Championship Coverage

You’ve no doubt read or heard that Oakland Hills is the Monster, that it’s roller coaster greens make it all but unplayable, etc, etc. But the truth is, a fair share of the world’s best players always find a way to survive the most tortuous tests, even if that means playing 72 incredibly difficult holes in a handful of shots over par.

A total of 74 players, or 47% of the field, managed to shoot 74 or lower on Thursday. Seventy players and ties will make the cut, so if you double that score, 148 (+8) should be good enough to make the cut. This total is almost identical to the cut lines at the three previous majors this season. It also suggests that the winning score will be somewhere around two over par.

147—280 Masters
149—283 US Open
149—283 British Open
148—282 PGA – A Guess!

The lack of birdie holes makes this PGA like a marathon race. Once a player falls too far off the pace, it is all but impossible for them to make up the lost ground. As the tournament progress, more and more players fall by the way side, leaving an ever shorter list of contenders. We’re not surprised by the players who make an early exit – we know John Daly and the 20 club pros will be long gone from the leaderboard before Sunday.

And then there are the early departures of those we had such high hopes for. Adam Scott, for example is +9 with six holes to play, so Butch’s top protégé is likely miss the cut. Lee Westwood, who shot a 77 in the morning and who’s been grousing about the conditions, will probably be catching an early flight back home.

Woody Austin, who finished second last year, is +15 with four to go, so he’s done. Trevor Immelman’s hopes of joining Jack Nicklaus as the only player to win the Masters and the PGA are kaput. He’s +14 with three to play. And K.J. Choi, who contended at the British Open, will need a strong round to make the cut after his opening 78 in the morning.

Last week’s winner Vijay Singh is +8 with four tough holes to go, so he may not make the cut and he certainly won’t win. And as for poor Andres Romero, he opened with a 69 but closed out his opening nine of 42 with a quadruple bogey, par, double bogey train wreck, taking him from contender to possibly missing the cut in three holes. Hey, maybe Oakland Hills is a monster after all.