Capelle On Golf

PGA Championship Coverage

I see a problem. As I look down the list of the supposed best players in the world I realize that Ladbrokes’ long odds are correct. Even without Tiger in the field every one of the “favorites” is a long shot. So much for the stepping up while he’s gone theory.

Go ahead and try the names test. Look at each name, roll it around in your brain for a few moments, and try to build a good case for that player winning – one that would lead you to wager a sawbuck or a C-note. Or do you find it much easier to write them off?

Times up. Here’s my take, starting at the top. Mickelson has done squat in the last nine majors including the two most recent PGAs. Harrington runs hot and cold and his PGA record doesn’t inspire much confidence. Though Garcia won THE PLAYERS, I don’t trust him yet in a major. Do you? Els and Furyk have become solid top 10 types in the majors, but that’s it. The Great Scott? No way.

Perry is a tour winner, period. Singh is on the skids. And that bring us to our great hope, Mr. Anthony Kim. He’s won twice lately, got a 7t at the British Open, and hasn’t tortured his fans with a string of disappointments for a dozen or more seasons like Mickelson and Company. Maybe he’s worth a shot – still, he looked shaky at the close the last two weekend and that first one’s the toughest.

Next up is Ogilvy who can’t be counted out based on his solid play over the last few months, his top 10s in the most recent PGAs, and his major winner status.

You can continue down the list if you like but I see no one I like until Immelman, and he’s just a hunch that’s based on his magic at the Masters.

Without Tiger you would think that the odds and the feelings would change – that the next best players in the world would inspire some belief in their chances. That at least a couple of those names would jump out and make you say, “I like his chances.”

Sure, one of the names below will likely win, but if they do, I think it would be a stretch to say, “I just knew it.” That feeling is typically reserved for one man, and he’s not playing.

Odds are X/1 - Last three PGAs - Top 10 in Red
10 Phil Mickelson (W, 16t, 32t)
14 Padraig Harrington (MC, MC, 42t)
14 Sergio Garcia (23t, 3t, DQ)
16 Ernie Els (DNP, 16t, 3)
16 Jim Furyk (34t, 29t, MC)
25 Adam Scott (40t, 3t, 12t)
25 Kenny Perry (23t, 49t, 23t)
25 Vijay Singh (10t, MC, MC)
25 Anthony Kim (DNP, DNP, 50t)
33 Geoff Ogilvy (6t, 9t, 6t)
33 K..J. Choi (40t, 7t, 12t)
33 Stewart Cink (28t, 24t, 32t)
40 Henrik Stenson (47t, 14t, MC)
40 Justin Rose (DNP, 41t, 12t)
40 Lee Westwood (17t, 29t, 32t)
40 Retief Goosen (6t, 34t, 23t)
50 Ian Poulter (47t, 9t, 23t)
50 Justin Leonard (MC, MC, MC)
50 Luke Donald (66t, 3t, 23t)
50 Mike Weir (47t, 6, MC)
50 Miguel Angel Jimenez (40t, DNP, MC)
50 Robert Karlsson (DNP, 29t, 57t)
50 Stephen Ames (72t, 55t, 12t)
50 Steve Stricker (DPN, 7t, 23t)
66 Andres Romero (DNP, MC, MC)
66 Camilo Villegas (DNP, MC, 23t)
66 Hunter Mahan (DNP, MC, 18t)
66 Paul Casey (59t, MC, 40t)
66 Robert Allenby (MC, 20t, MC)
66 Stuart Appleby (15t, 55t, 12t)
66 Trevor Immelman (17t, 34t, 6t)
80 Rocco Mediate (DNP, DNP, WD)

Favorites for the PGA in 1973
Now check out the field going into the 1973 PGA, which was Nicklaus’ 12th season as a pro, the same as Woods’. Nicklaus won the 1973 PGA, but if he had not played, there were a number of players that would have looked good in the role of a favorite. Eight of these nine players had already won from one to seven majors, and the ninth player on the list would have won the PGA if not for Nicklaus. The table shows their record in the PGA from 1970-1972.

Gary Player (12t, 4t, W) 2 PGAs – his best year was 1974
Lee Trevino (26t, 13, 11t) 2 PGAs – won the PGA in 1974
Ray Floyd (8t, MC, 4t) 2 PGAs – 1969 PGA winner
Dave Stockton (W, 40t, 40t) 2 PGAs – PGA winner in 1970, 1976
Arnold Palmer (2t, 18, 16t) – tied for 4th at 1973 US Open
Johnny Miller (12t, 20t, 20t) – just won the US Open with a closing 63
Tom Weiskopf (MC, 22, 62t) – just won British Open, in biggest year
Billy Casper (18t, 2, 4t) – 3 time major winner
Bruce Crampton (6t, 57t, 24t) – second to Nicklaus twice in 1972 and at ’73 PGA