Capelle On Golf

British Open Coverage

We know Tiger Woods is going to win majors at the rate of 1+ per year. At the next level down we have Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els, who are fully capable of winning majors, but don’t exactly make a habit of it.

Each has played in all but one major since 1994 and won three, or one in every 19 over that span. But given their lengthy dry spells, it is reasonable to conclude that neither may win another major.

Both are now 38 and showing the effects of over a dozen years in the limelight. Phil has not done well in the majors since his disaster at Winged Foot nine majors ago. In addition, Phil has serious issues with two of the big four, (both Opens) which limits his chances of capturing number four. As for Els, he has never been himself since hurting his knee in 2005 though he did put up a good fight at last year’s PGA, finishing three back of Woods.

Without Tiger in the Open, it’s could be now or never for Phil and Ernie. Tiger’s won six of the last 14, so that means the field won 57%. Now the field’s chances are 100%. And the Tiger Factor, which causes players to slide down the leaderboard even when he doesn’t win, is not in effect. Players like Stuart Appleby (75 in the 4th round of the 2007 Masters) and Aaron Baddeley (80 in the 4th round of the 2007 US Open), who both melted when paired with him, will not be subjected to the Tiger Factor on Sunday at the Open.

Unencumbered by the Tiger’s aura, both players have a great shot at bagging their fourth major, breaking the deadlock, and moving into the driver’s seat as the Second Best of the Woods Era. The two couldn’t be much closer, their records in the majors being nearly identical. (Note: though Vijay Singh has also won three majors, his overall record in them is nowhere close to Phil and Ernie’s).

Phil vs. Ernie
38—38 age (Ernie is 8 months older)
3—3 Major titles
5—6 Seconds in majors
15—15 Top 4s in majors
26—27 Top 10s in majors
34—15 PGA Tour wins (no double counting)
0—20 European Tour wins (no double counting)

If Phil wins he will have proven he can master links golf. A win will also give him three different major titles to Els’ two. Ernie will validate his US and British Open titles by winning both twice. A fourth major by either player would break that deadlock in convincing fashion. More importantly, since neither player is a lock to win another, a win at the Open could settle the question of who is better once and for all.

On the eve of the 137th edition of British Open, the Tigerless wide open Open is filled with story lines galore. Will pretourney favorite Sergio Garcia breakthrough and win his first major? Will the winner come from the talented youngsters, the veterans, or the old guard? Will longer and tougher rough and strengthening winds lead to the Disaster in the Dunes of Birkdale or to the Shipwreck of Southport?

Lost in the shuffle is the most compelling story of all – will Phil or Ernie hoist the Claret Jug come Sunday and stake their claim as the Second Best Player of the Woods Era?