Capelle On Golf

2008 US Open Coverage

The Weather is Heating Up On Cue
San Diego has been blessed lately with those perfect 70 degree days of spring that the city is famous for. Now, as if on command from the USGA, the forecast calls for daily highs of 84, 79, and 79 for the first three rounds. This is not super hot given San Diego’s typically low humidity, but it could be warm enough to change how the course plays. After practicing on a relatively slow running layout, Torrey could play faster. The greens might also lose that bit of sponginess Tiger Woods talked about in a news conference. In other words, Torrey Pines is primed to get downright nasty.

The Hazards of Torrey Pines
The most prominent feature of Torrey Pines are the deep and gorgeous canyons that line holes 3, 4, 6, 7, 13, 14, 16, and 17. That’s eight holes where the canyons could come into play. The rough has also been a big topic of conversation. The USGA’s meticulous preparation of the long grass always ensures that it will garner its share of ink, but this year the scribes seem to be enchanted with the name kikuyu grass.

Overlooked in most pre tournament coverage are the 4.4 bunkers (on average) that line the fairways and that surround the greens. Most of them are big to huge, and are well placed. There are fairway traps on both sides of the fairway on four holes on the front nine and three on the back. On five other holes, bunkers are present on one side of the fairway and a canyon is on the other. The fourteenth hole is the only one with a bail out option, but it’s not much of one since a shot from the right rough could easily roll over the green into the canyon.

The Odds are Fluctuating
They say the only constant in this world is change – and that’s exactly what’s been happening with the odds of several of the leading contenders. While the reports from Tiger Woods concerning his knee have been mostly positive, evidently the public is not convinced because the odds keep climbing on the world’s best player. On June 2 he was listed at 6/4. They climbed to 7/4, then 5/2. Now he’s at 3/1. For the layman, that means a $1 wager will win you $3, whereas eight days ago a dollar would bring home only $1.50.

Oddsmaking in golf is not nearly the science that it’s become in major league sports such as football. As a result, there are some discrepancies in the odds. For example, among the four players at 33/1, Ogilvy looks like the best bet. In the 40/1 group I would go with Immelman and avoid Cink.

Players in red have seen their odds cut because they have played well the last week or two. Those in blue have been cooling off.

Changes in the Last Eight Days
Now — June 2
3/1 was 6/4 Tiger Woods
8/1 same Phil Mickelson
20/1 was 25/1 Sergio Garcia
25/1 same Padraig Harrington
33/1 was 25/1 Jim Furyk
33/1 was 40/1 Geoff Ogilvy
33/1 was 40/1 Luke Donald
33/1 was 25/1 Vijay Singh
40/1 was 33/1 Adam Scott
40/1 was 25/1 Ernie Els
40/1 same Justin Rose
40/1 was 33/1 Retief Goosen
40/1 same Stewart Cink
40/1 was 50/1 Trevor Immelman
50/1 was 80/1 Justin Leonard
50/1 was 66/1 Mike Weir
50/1 was 80/1 Stephen Ames

Going Dark for a Few Days
I will be at the tournament so I may not get a chance to post for a few days. I will be carrying around a notebook, and I will share my observations and provide additional coverage when I return home.