Capelle On Golf

2008 US Open Coverage

You hear all the talk on the Golf Channel and elsewhere about who is the favorite going into the US Open. It’s fun to listen too, but for my money, the ultimate prognosticators are the folks at Ladbrokes.com. They put their money where their opinions are, and they establish their odds based on where the public’s money is flowing.

I wrote last week that Woods was a bad deal at 6/4 to win the Open. A week later he’s still at those odds even though he’s not fully recovered from knee surgery, and with the Open a scant nine days away. According to Woods he can win if less than 100 percent. Maybe he can the XYZ Classic that way, but I doubt if he can win an Open. Here’s what he had to say Monday:

“It’s getting there. Hopefully, it’s closer to 100 percent, but if it’s not, no big deal. I have won tournaments when it wasn’t 100 percent. It’s just a matter of getting into the competitive flow and the rhythm of the game again.”

Mickelson, who I thought was a steal at 8/1 a week ago, is still listed at those odds.

I was beginning to wonder if Ladbrokes odds were set in stone until I got to Ernie Els, who a week ago was their third choice at 20/1. After missing the cut at the Memorial, you can have the Big Easy for 25/1. Even so, that’s not such a great deal since he’s in the midst of changing his swing.

I proceeded down the list to see if Ladbroke’s had made any other significant adjustments. It seems they have. Anthony Kim followed his victory at Wachovia with a 42t and a 40t, earning a demotion to 50/1.

Evidently Ladbrokes was impressed by the play of Geoff Ogilvy (9), Justin Rose (2t), and Luke Donald (6t) at the Memorial under major like conditions because all three saw their odds cut on Monday. Ogilvy looks like the best bet because he’s won a major, but the other two look attractive at 40/1 because their day is (or should be) coming.

As for the rest of the 50/1 and under club, Garcia, Immelman, and Goosen are three names that seem to stand out among this group.

Same
6/4 Tiger Woods
8/1 Phil Mickelson
25/1 Jim Furyk
25/1 Padraig Harrington
25/1 Sergio Garcia
25/1 Vijay Singh
33/1 Adam Scott
33/1 Retief Goosen
40/1 Stewart Cink
50/1 Trevor Immelman
50/1 K.J. Choi

Higher
20/1 to 25/1 Ernie Els
40/1 to 50/1 Anthony Kim

Lower
40/1 to 33/1 Geoff Ogilvy
50/1 to 40/1 Justin Rose
50/1 to 40/1 Luke Donald