Capelle On Golf

I respectfully submit that the oddsmakers at Ladbrokes or the betting public have gone nuts. How else can you explain the 6/4 odds on Tiger Woods winning the U.S. Open? Maybe Ladbrokes is so leery of Tiger that they are keeping the odds artificially low to discourage the public from betting on him. They’ve already admitted to posting excessively low odds on Tiger winning the Grand Slam before the Masters, so this wouldn’t be out of character.

The low odds could also be in response to a rash of wagers from the most severely afflicted victims of Tigermania. The malady is a harmless condition, but it can become a problem when the stricken part with their hard earned cash while accepting absurdly low odds. Sure, it looked to some like Tiger would never lose again earlier this year, but those days are long gone. Today we are dealing with a wounded Tiger who has just begun to hit full shots following surgery, and who skipped the Memorial because he needed more reps on the practice tee. Here’s what Woods has to say at a news conference on Tuesday:

“I wasn’t ready,” Woods said. “I started my practice basically just recently. So going to Memorial that rusty, it wouldn’t have made any sense. I wasn’t sharp enough. I didn’t hit all my shots I needed to hit yet at home and make sure everything is organized. … The whole idea is to be ready for the U.S. Open.”

Meanwhile, we have Phil Mickelson, who is rounding into mid season form just in time for the Open. He won at Colonial over the weekend, and he’s got a strong record in the Open over the last six years. In fact, were it not for that wayward drive on 18 at Winged Foot, his record would be almost identical to Tiger’s from 2002-2007. Tiger’s got a win and two seconds, Phil three seconds. Both have been down the leaderboard twice and each has missed one cut, Tiger because he was rusty following his dad’s passing, and Phil due to an injured wrist.

——–TW—-PM
2002—W—–2
2003—20t—55t
2004—17t—2
2005—2—–33t
2006—mc—2t
2007—2t—–mc

According to this form chart, these two are as closely matched as two players can be, at least in the Open. Evidently the fans at AOL agree. When asked on Tuesday who they liked, Tiger won, but by a small margin.
Who is more likely to win the U.S. Open?
A recovering Tiger Woods 57%
A hot Phil Mickelson 43%

Perhaps the fans’ hesitation to swing even harder in Mickelson’s direction is based on his three close losses in the Open. But it would be well to remember that Phil finished in third place three straight years at Augusta before winning in 2004. He may blow tournaments from time to time, but he’s amazingly resilient. And he’s often tough in the clutch. He won two of his three majors with birdies on the final hole.

You can have Woods all day long at 6/4. For my money, I like Mickelson at 8/1. Just because he hasn’t won the Open doesn’t mean he can’t.