Capelle On Golf

If recovering to near full strength from an operation was a precise science, Tiger Woods’ decision to have surgery in the middle of the season would not be a disaster in the making, but it’s not. The original estimates called for 4-6 weeks of recovery time. The four week forecast came and went eleven days ago. The maximum date is this coming Tuesday, so Tiger is up against the outer limits of the timetable and the US Open is rapidly approaching.

As Friday wore on, the golf world anxiously awaited the news. Would Tiger be playing in Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial Tournament? Hopefully the answer would be yes, for this would be a sure sign that his recovery was more or less on schedule. Playing in Jack’s event would also give Tiger a chance to test his knee and shake the rust off prior to the Open. On late Friday the bomb dropped.

When the list of entrees for the Memorial was posted , Tiger’s name was not on it. He must have felt that a bit of rust at the Open was worth the price of avoiding possibly re-injuring his knee. According to a statement from his agent Mark Steinberg, “Tiger was looking forward to playing at the Memorial. Unfortunately, the timing of his recovery will not allow him to do so.”

“The timing” are the operative words. Tiger’s recovery now appears to be officially behind schedule. If he’d had the surgery last fall during the off season, this would be no big deal. Now a cloud has been cast over his chances for winning the US Open, and possibly the season.

His Chances of Winning the Open
Tiger at his best is no certainty to win the Open, his most elusive major. He’s won it twice in eleven tries as a pro compared to four Masters, three British Opens, and four PGAs. A big reason is that he pays a higher price for his wayward driving at the Open than at other events. At Winged Foot in ‘06, for example, he hit only seven of 28 fairways and missed the cut with a pair of 76s.

Tiger managed to win his first tournament 66 days following surgery in late 2002 at Torrey Pines of all places. This time if he were to win the Open, it would come 61 days following his third knee surgery.

To win at super long Torrey Pines he’s going to have to drive accurately and have his A Game running on all cylinders. Even Tiger can’t fake his way to an Open title. Considering that he’s not shape to play in the Memorial, it’s hard to imagine that he will be ready for the rigors of Torrey Pines with the Open starting just eleven days later.

So what are his chances of winning? The oddsmakers still view him as the prohibitive favorite. Ladbrokes has had a full day to digest Tiger’s no show at the Memorial, but they still have him at 6/4. Only the most acute victims of Tigermania should even consider these odds.

All things considered, I would give him no more than a ten percent chance of winning, and I think that’s a bit generous. Phil Mickelson has come close to winning several Opens, he’s a regular at Torrey Pines, and he is playing well. Still, Ladbrokes has him at 8/1. A healthy Phil with a chance to make some real money versus a recovering Tiger at such low odds – that’s a no brainer.

Tiger’s Big Blunder
In the week following Tiger’s surgery I wrote a series of posts (first – second – third) on what a mistake it was for Tiger not to have the surgery last fall. If he had, he’d be cruising through one of best seasons ever. He would also be honing his game to a razor’s edge for the US Open.

But Tiger’s not because he waited until the inevitable was mandatory. He remained in denial, or in hope, long enough so that he was forced to have the surgery during the heart of this season. This is looking more and more like a huge mistake. Tiger’s on a time schedule. Every year is precious in his quest to replace Jack Nicklaus as the best ever.

His early thirties are doubly important because they are his prime years, and they offer him the best chance for multiple major winning seasons. He won two at age 30, and the way he was playing earlier this year the odds looked good for another double major winning season. Now the chances for a shutout don’t seem so far fetched.

Key Dates
Surgery performed: April 15
Optimistic recovery date: May 13
Memorial no-show announced: May 23
Maximum estimated recovery date: May 27
Memorial starts: May 29
US Open first round: June 12