Capelle On Golf

The preliminaries are two thirds complete. The amateurs, oldsters, journeymen, and a select group of top players like Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, and Luke Donald, who’ve got serious issues, have packed their bags.

Several of the first round upstarts such as Heath Slocum (71-76), Brian Bateman (69-76), and Jeev Milkha Singh (71-74) went from red to black on Friday, and back into the pack.

And then there was the sad case of breakout hopeful Justin Rose, who added 10 shots to his opening 68 and wound up making the cut with a shot to spare. His downfall came at the 15th when he scored a dreaded snowman, a water logged triple bogey that took him from -2 to +1. He compounded his woes by three jacking on 16 for a bogey.

Among the leaders lefty Steve Flesch polished off a 67, the day’s low round, and then retreated to the safety of the clubhouse. Fellow early starters Trevor Immelman and Brandt Snedeker also enjoyed the more favorable scoring conditions in the morning, posting 68s to assume the first and second positions at -8 and -7 respectively.

Phil Mickelson went to work 90 minutes after Snedeker teed off and methodically dissected Augusta National with a bogey free 68 to go along with his opening 71, leaving him tied with Flesch at -5. Mickelson put on a ball striking clinic, hitting 12 of 14 fairways and 15 of 18 greens. After 36 holes he’s the leader in GIR with 29. His putting, which has been a source of concern, has been quite good. He did have one three putt yesterday from 15’ at the sixth, but that’s the only one despite all of those GIRs.

Tiger Woods’ quest for the Grand Slam was all but lost at one point, his most immediate concern being surviving cut. After a wide right into the right rough at 10, his wide right approach left him 50 slippery feet from the cup. He misread the putt so badly that he ended up six feet to the right of the hole. He missed to go one over for the tournament. (Plus three made the cut).

On eleven he pushed his iron shot, leaving himself a lightning fast 60 footer with water lurking on the other side of the hole. His first putt came up a full 10 feet short. Now he was staring +2 in the face. Tiger stalked this gut wrenching put, his tournament and his dreams of winning the Slam on the line. He rolled it like only Tiger can.

A routine par on 12 was followed by a 50 foot eagle putt on 13 with 30 feet of break! He read this one perfectly, leaving himself a four footer for birdie, which he made. Another tee shot into Sherwood Forest on 15 forced Woods to layup, so he settled for a par. From 140 yards on 17 he stopped his short iron eight inches from the cup. Red numbers at last. Minus one. Game on.

The Woods Traveling Magic Show wasn’t done yet. On 18 his drive went at least 50 yards wide right into middle of a forest. Now if you or I hit it in there, we’re behind the base of a tree. Tiger hits into a forest and he’s always got a way out – as if it were a birthright. His punch shot off the pine straw missed a tree by 2-3 inches and took him to the tenth fairway. After conferring with super caddie Steve Williams (geez, how could he know how to play this shot?), Woods wedged past the pin. Then as if in a pool game, the ball drew back and billiarded off Stuart Appleby’s ball, keeping him from having an even shorter par putt. No problem, as Woods coolly rolled in an eight footer to remain at one under.

I mentioned earlier that we had cleared away a bit of the underbrush on cut day. Saturday is moving day, so it should further clear the air. Look for Woods to move up while other move down. Sure, it’s possible that Immelman, Snedeker, and Flesh could hold on to or even improve on their positions, but most experts would not think that likely.

Immelman did finish 6t at last year’s PGA, and fifth at the 2005 Masters, but top tens are one thing, winning’s another. Flesch is a four time winner on tour, but owns only two top tens in the majors in the last 15 years. Snedeker has a single tour win and no top tens in the majors, but his carefree style has impressed many observers.

These three are probably all nice fellows, but you can bet that Woods is most concerned with the other lefty at -5, Mickelson. And I’m sure, given 36 pressure packed holes, he is confident that he can overtake the eight other players that are one to three shots ahead of him on the leaderboard. Among them, only Mike Weir (-3) and Retief Goosen (-2) have won majors. Goosen has managed to outscore Woods by a shot over their last ten rounds at the Masters.

Let’s assume for a moment that we’ve got a Woods/Mickelson showdown for the ages shaping up. Who’s the likely winner? Mickelson is holding a four shot advantage, and he’s played far better golf so far. His GIR is 80.55% to Woods’ 63.89. He’s hit 23 of 28 fairways to Woods’ 18 of 28. And he’s also got the heart to pull this off, which is the most important ingredient of all.

Given this dossier, it is hard to imagine Mickelson backing up over the weekend. Let’s pencil him in for two 71s. That’s no stretch given the way he’s playing. That would put him at -7. Woods would need something like a 68-69 on the weekend to beat him. Woods has conceded that the new Augusta National is tough to score on, so this would represent two excellent rounds, even considering his lofty standards.

To beat Mickelson or the other pretenders/contenders, one thing is for sure: Woods is going to have to hit the driver often enough to set up second shots that enable him to attack a few pins – and that’s the one club that has given him more trouble than any other. Should he visit the forests of Augusta National once or twice too often, his luck could run out. He just might get stuck in a position that even the great Houdini couldn’t get out of.