Capelle On Golf

2008 Masters Coverage - thru 4/15

It’s easy to get caught up in the hype. Tiger’s going to win, and no one else has a chance. Yesterday I ran a form chart, highlighting the names of those who could contend, but with no great enthusiasm. My lack of zeal for the field’s chances was based on the strength of Tiger’s game, and the weakness of everyone else’s.

Upon further consideration, however, I found it hard to dismiss Phil Mickelson as easily as the others even though he’s cooled off from earlier in the year. He’s really not playing that badly. In his last three starts he’s hit 71.3% of the greens and finished 21t, 20t, and 23t. This indicates that he’s one tweak in his game from ascending the leaderboard. Earlier this year he missed the cut at Pebble Beach, then won the Northern Trust at Riviera the following week, so an instant revival can’t be ruled out.

Still, I needed some cause for optimism, so I decided to crunch the numbers: Phil vs. Tiger at the Masters over the last four years. This covers the time when Phil joined Tiger as a major winner. The results were rather astonishing.

Over 288 holes at Augusta National, Tiger has outscored Phil by three measly strokes, about one shot every five rounds. Tiger’s hit 2 more greens in regulation per 72 holes on the supersized version of Augusta National than Phil, but Phil’s recouped most of that deficit with his scrambling.

A Tale of the Stats – 2004-2007 (per round)
————Woods—-Mickelson
Eagles —-0.13——-0.00
Birdies—-4.06——-3.75
Pars——–10.44 —-11.38
Bogeys—-3.13——-2.56
D. Bog.—-0.25——-0.25
Others—–0.00——0.06
GIR/Rd.—12.06—-11.56

Conventional wisdom has it that Phil the Thrill is an out of control gambler while Woods is the consummate strategist. Interestingly, the numbers don’t support CW, at least not at Augusta. Phil’s scored 60 birdies to Tiger’s 65 birdies and two eagles, but he’s also recorded nine fewer bogeys. This would indicate that he plays even more conservatively than Woods, who is roundly praised for his course management.

An examination of their scorecards confirmed that these two feast on the pars 5s. The short par 4 third hole is also a patsy for both players, and it is the fifth easiest birdie hole for Tiger and Phil.

The first hole has proven to be the most difficult for both players, but the eleventh is also a problem. Par is an excellent score for Tiger and Phil on both of the par 3s on the front nine where their bogeys outnumber their birdies.

A group of eight holes make up the Average Joe’s. These holes give up birdies and bogeys in equal quantities. Woods has played these 128 holes in two over, while Mickelson is three over.

The Birdie Holes
—————–Woods—-Mickelson
2—-5–575—-4.500—-4.563
3—-4–350—-3.750—-3.625
8—-5–570—-4.750—-4.563
13–5–510—-4.500—-4.500
15–5–530—-4.625—-4.500

Card Wreckers
1—4–455—-4.375—-4.375
4—3–240—-3.125—-3.125
5—4–455—-4.125—-4.500
6—3–180—–3.188—-3.250
11–4–505—-4.250—-4.313

Average Joe’s
7—-4–450—-4.000—-3.875
9—-4–460—-3.938—-4.063
10–4–495—-4.000—-4.000
12–3–155—–3.188—-2.938
14–4–440—-4.063—-4.063
16–3–170—–2.875—-3.125
17–4–440—-4.125—-3.938
18–4–465—–3.938—-4.188

Tiger is the heavy favorite, as he should be. Still, we can’t overlook Lefty’s chances in light of his rather impressive set of numbers. If the numbers rule, and not just the hype, we may be in store for a great duel for the ages.