Capelle On Golf

2008 Masters Coverage - thru 4/15

The only rookie to win the Masters in the last 50 years is Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Zoeller beat Ed Sneed and Tom Watson in a sudden death playoff that Jack Nicklaus missed entering by a shot.

One in 50 aren’t very encouraging odds. Still, hope springs eternal for this year’s band of 19 Masters rookies. Should they emerge from the awe and wonderment that grips them upon their first trip down Magnolia Lane, maybe a few of them will stick around for the full 72 holes.

While their chances of matching Zoeller’s deed are slim with Woods on the rampage, we must still give them their just due. After all, they did make it to the first tee of Augusta National, and that’s got to seem like a win for most of this bunch.

Here’s the criteria I used in evaluating them:

• Have they won anything of note in the last year or so
• Have they placed in the top 10 in a major
• How have they played this year – especially over the last month

In short, have they given us any reason for believing in the dream?

The numbers after each player are their current WGR, and their latest odds of winning from Ladbroke’s.

Possible Contenders/Winners
Andres Romero (21 / 80 to 1) - Argentina - He won last week at the Zurich of New Orleans. Third at the ‘07 British Open. Hit only 50% of the greens at the Shell-Houston this week and packed his bags for Augusta.

J.B. Holmes (55 / 100 to 1) - Won the ‘08 FBR Open in a playoff with Phil Mickelson and he extended Tiger to the max at the Accenture. Super long, so a hot driver could allow him to feast on the par 5s.

John Senden (50 / 200 to 1) - Australia – This 36 year old journeyman hits lots of greens. 11th so far in GIR this year, was second to Tiger last year at 70.33%. Fourth at last year’s PGA. 2t at the PODS last month.

Boo Weekley (48 / 150 to 1) - Won the ‘07 Verizon Heritage. Has a couple of top 10s this year, but has not been close to winning anything in a few months. Did finish 9t at last year’s PGA.

Bubba Watson (102 / 200 to 1) – Tiger likes Bubba’s game, says he’s got lots of shots and can work the ball. The tour’s longest hitter, so Augusta will be a par 68 if he’s hitting it straight. A very surprising 5t at the ‘07 U.S. Open showed he’s got some game. Hopefully his ruckus at New Orleans won’t affect his play.

Long Shots
Martin Kaymer (26 / 80 to 1) – A win and a second on the European Tour earlier this year shot him to #21. He’s played very poorly in his last four starts, however, so a breakthrough win in the majors will have to wait.

Heath Slocum (91 / 200 to 1) USA. His best finish in seven full field events this year is a 30t at the PODS.

Richard Sterne (34 / 200 to 1) - South Africa. A 26-year-old looking to make his mark, he earns most of his points in Asia, Africa, and Europe where he’s won three events since early ‘07. Best is a 21t in last three PGA Tour starts. He could bear watching in the future.

Nick Watney (125 / 200 to 1) – At the last three majors of ’07 he went MC, 35t, MC – not a good sign for an aspiring major champion. Two top 25s in his last three starts offer a ray of hope.

Daniel Chopra (66 / 150 to 1) Sweden. Chopra is one of the most active players, having already played in 11 events this year after competing 37 times last season. He scored a victory at the Mercedes Benz earlier this year, but his best since then is a 32t. He missed the cut at the PGA last year, his only major in ’07.

Nick Dougherty (52 / 200 to 1) – England. He managed a 7t at last year’s U.S. Open, then won on the European Tour in early October. Over the last six months he’s done little to suggest that he’s primed for a run at Green Jacket. Was 51t at Doral in his last start.

Richard Green (57 / 200 to 1) – Australia – A strong 4t at the ’07 British Open. His game has been a disaster in his last six starts. His latest three PGA Tour finishes are 49t, MC, 51t.

Anders Hansen (51 / 250 to 1) –Denmark. He recorded a 12t at the ’07 PGA and he finished 12t at the WGC-CA two weeks ago. Otherwise, there is little to suggest that he’ll be anywhere close to the leaderboard come next Sunday afternoon.

Soren Hansen (47 / 250 to 1) – Denmark. He did win the ‘07 Mercedes-Benz Championship, worth 40 GR points. He missed the cut at last year’s PGA, his only major, and has finished MC, 70t in his last two starts on the PGA Tour.

Zero Chance of Winning
Brian Bateman (193 / 500 to 1) – Best finish in eight full field starts in ’08 is a 44t.

Wen - Chong Liang (111 / 500 to 1) - China – special invite. Did manage a 12t in New Orleans, but has otherwise played poorly this year.

Prayad Marksaeng (93 / 500 to 1) - Thailand – special invite. Won the Volvo Masters of Asia, worth 20 WGR points at the end of ’07. Still, nothing to suggest that this 42 year old rookie could win.

Michael Thompson – USA (2,000 to 1) – Amateur’s have no chance.

Drew Weaver of USA – (500 to 1) Amateur have no chance