Capelle On Golf

Part 3 – Grand Slam - 2008 Masters Coverage

Tiger Woods has said winning the Grand Slam this year is “easily within reason.” He’s naturally biased towards his cause, so I thought I would check in with several groups in the golf world and see what they think of his chances. Let’s begin with the professional oddsmakers, the people who put their money where their mouths are.

The Oddsmakers are Running Scared
Ladbrokes’ odds for Tiger winning the Grand Slam were 16/1 on January 31, or 5.9%. Since then Tiger’s won three tournaments in a row and finished two back in the fourth. Ladbrokes got the message and dropped their odds to an astounding 8/1. According to a Ladbroke’s spokesman, “We’ve set an artificially low price because we’re scared.”

Their odds are so low that you can now get the same odds on Phil Mickelson – but all he has to do is win the Masters! Ladbrokes is assuming that Tiger, at the peak of his otherworldly powers, has a 57.7% chance of winning each major. In truth, Ladbrokes offers slightly different odds for each major if you bet on them individually. He’s even money (50%) at the Masters, 5/4 (44.4%) at the U.S. Open, and 6/4 (40.0%) at the British Open and the PGA.

Let’s see now. If Tiger were to win majors at the least optimistic rate of 40% until he’s 40, that would be 13 more for a total of 26. If he won at a 40% clip for just the next five years, that would give him 21 majors before his 38th birthday.

Something’s got to give because that’s just not going to happen. I’d say it’s Tigermania, that this distorted view of his chances has got to give way to the cold hard reality that the game is golf. His putter’s going to turn cold for a while, or somebody’s going to figure out how to beat him on Sunday.

The Fans are Wildly Optimistic
A month ago at Golf.com their readers believed that Tiger’s chances of winning the Grand Slam were “only” 35%. I visited AOL today and cast my vote. Will Tiger Woods win the Grand Slam this year? 6,344 voted yes. I joined the 6,338 who voted no. He’s great and he often makes winning look easy, but placing his chances at 50% (half the voters said yes) is merely an indication of the extremes of Tigermania.

The Experts Weigh In
Let’s forget the bean counters and the fans and go right to the experts who cover golf for a living, and who have accumulated numerous championships. What do they have to say on the matter?

“Coming off a season that included seven wins and the first FedEx Cup title, Woods is poised to make a run at the Grand Slam. The major venues work in his favor, considering the first two courses are among his
favorites.”
Bill Nichols, Dallas News

“It’s tough to do but he’s done it,” world number three Steve Stricker told reporters at last week’s season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship. “Not all in one calendar year but he’s had them all. It looks like it’s possible.”
Steve Stricker

Should Woods continue to play at anything like the level he showed over the last five months of 2007, then, chances are, he will run off with a calendar year Grand Slam of the four major titles over the coming months.
John Huggan, Scotsman.com

What chances, then, the grand slam? Apart from form, the feat is also heavily dependent on the venues. This year, more than most, they look made for Woods.
Pete Dixon, The Times

But it’s not so much where he plays as it is what he is playing against — and that’s the law of averages. As great as he is — and he’s the best the game has ever known — winning major golf championships involve so many factors that rest outside his control (weather, course conditions, improbable shots by an opponent) that it’s difficult to envision even the great Tiger Woods pulling off the Grand Slam. At least not this year.
Jim McCabe, MSNBC - Surprise! A non-believer in the crowd.

“This will be the year when Tiger does the Grand Slam.”
Nick Faldo

“Is it ridiculous to think Woods could win all four majors and become the only person to pull off the professional grand Slam? Absolutely. Except for one thing. Woods is ridiculously, absurdly good. It is a measure of his greatness that the discussion can even take place.”
Ron Sirak, Golf Digest

“That’s a pretty lofty goal, but for a guy like Tiger, I wouldn’t put it past him,”
Jack Nicklaus

“I can see Tiger doing it. Since I created it in about 1960, we haven’t really had many people come close except Tiger.”
Arnold Palmer

Part 4 - Friday - The Final Installment of the Grand Slam Series
On Friday I’ll settle this matter once and for all as I give the definitive answer on why Tiger will, I mean won’t - win the Grand Slam!