Capelle On Golf

If the Arnold Palmer Invitational were a major, it would be over even though there are 18 holes left to play. Woods is 13 for 13 when leading or sharing the lead after 54 holes in the Big Four events. But since this is not, let’s consider his chances of notching his fifth straight PGA Tour victory and third of this young ’08 season.

Woods is tied with four other players at five under through 54 holes. That would suggest that, at least for one week, the other four are playing on a par with the world’s best player. This would also suggest that his chances of winning are 20%, one in five. Next, Bay Hill has been susceptible to low rounds (there have been 18 rounds of 66 or better), so it is possible that another player in the tightly bunched field could go low on Sunday. Woods’ chances appear even slimmer since six more players are within two shots and another five are only three behind.

Yes, Woods would hardly seem the favorite considering the number of players in the pack going into the final round. Except for one thing – he’s Tiger Woods and they are not. And, as the saying goes, he knows it, they know it, and he knows that they know it.

If we were to persist and try to pick another winner, who could it be? Let’s look at the four who are tied with Woods. Sean O’Hair won last week and is coming off a 63 in the third round. But two things are working against him. The post great round syndrome, and a date with Woods in the final pairing. If O’Hair can pull this off, he’s going to advance to the short list for Augusta.

Vijay Singh is a sentimental favorite for several reasons. He plays more than any other superstar, which is great for golf, he’s on the comeback trail, and the fans like to see older guys (he’s 45) win. Plus he’s won 31 times on the PGA Tour, and he’s the defending champion.

Bart Bryant, also 45, has some fond memories to draw from. He beat Woods, who tied for third, by six shots at the 2005 Memorial. Later in the year he followed this up with a six shot win over Woods (who finished second) at the Tour Championship.

Finally, we have Bubba Watson, the prodigious driver of the ball who is tied for third in GIR this week at 75.9%. Watson is seeking his first tour win, and what better place than at the home of The King.