Capelle On Golf

A pitcher who can end a baseball team’s losing streaks is called a stopper. If the mass of PGA Tour pros are looking for a stopper to Tiger Woods’ four event PGA Tour win streak (and prevent him from running the table this season), they need look no further than Bay Hill.

Woods won four straight at Bay Hill, his personal playground, from 2000-2003. The site of this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, however, has seemed more like a burial ground to Woods of late. The last four years he has finished 46t-18 back, 23t-11 back, 20t-10 back, and 22t-11 back. These are not Tiger like numbers.

The culprit could be the greens, as Larry Doman suggested in the New York Times on Sunday. In 2004 the grass on the greens was changed from TifDwarf Bermuda to TifEagle. Not coincidentally, Woods’ winning streak came to an abrupt halt. I checked out the key stats and, sure enough, his putter began to sputter at Bay Hill in 2004.

In the four winning years Woods averaged 12.94 greens per round, and used only 28.06 putts per round. From 2004-2007 Woods’ GIR averaged 12.19. Now when a scrambling wizard like Woods hits fewer greens, his putts per green typically go down thanks to those short range par saving putts. But, in this case, Woods’ putts per round actually jumped to an average of 29.81 per round since the greens were changed. In sum, over the last four years, Woods has averaged .75 less greens per round, but used 1.75 more putts per round. The result has been a series of un-Woodsian like deficits.

Woods is hitting the ball superbly this season, but even he does not win when the flat stick is misbehaving. So, the big story of the week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational could be Bay Hill’s unruly greens versus the game’s hottest putter.