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AOL Polls Reach New Levels of Absurdity

March 1st, 2008 · No Comments

AOL likes to run golf polls, which is generally a good thing since polls get the fans involved. But lately their polls have ventured from the sublime to the ridiculous, thanks in no small part to runaway Tigermania.

First there are the Grand Slam Polls. On Friday readers were asked: What are Tiger Woods’ chances for a grand slam? An amazing 58% of the voters checked Excellent, the most optimistic selection. On another poll at AOL, readers were given a Yes/No choice on whether or not Woods would win the Grand Slam this year. The yeas accounted for 52% of the vote. Never mind that professional oddsmakers Ladbrokes have him at 7.7% (12/1).

Now for the totally ridiculous. AOL asked this question in another poll: What are Tiger Woods’ chances for a perfect 2008? A total of 31% of the voters chose Excellent, again the most optimistic selection.

Woods has already played in and won two PGA Tour events. He will compete in about 14 more official events, the ones that count towards a perfect season. Now let’s look at his chances for a 16-0 season, using a series of highly optimistic scenarios. If we assume he’s got an 80% shot at winning each event, his chances of a perfect season are 1 in about 23. Drop that percentage a tad to 70% and he’s a 1 in 147 shot for a perfect season. At 50% he’s got almost zero chance.

80% 4.39% = 1 in 22.78
70% 0.68% = 1 in 147
60% 0.08% = 1 in 1,276
50% 0.006% = 1 in 16,384

Geez, I just caught myself. This whole subject of a perfect season is so off-the-charts ridiculous that I can’t believe Tiger and his fans are even talking about, or that I just wrote a post about it! Case dismissed

Tags: Polling Place


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