Capelle On Golf

We golf fans now have a good reason to play hooky – Tiger, Phil and Company are going to engage in some man to man shootouts over a five day run starting this Wednesday in Tucson at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championships. And. if we get our way after the smoke has cleared come late Saturday afternoon, then Tiger and Phil will be locked in a 36 hole shootout for the ages on Sunday over the fairways of The Gallery South Course!

This event deserves a bigger build up than the Super Bowl (hey, there are 64 “teams” to preview). Still, I’m going to keep my pretournament coverage to a minimum because it is the games and not the hype that matter.

We are in the year of Supreme Tigermania as evidenced by the Grand Slam predictions that fill the air. Even so, Tiger doesn’t always steamroller his way to this particular championship. In fact, he has “only” won this event two of eight times and, oddly enough, in ‘03 and ‘04, his two worst years on tour.

Yes, indeed, other players really do have a legitimate shot at the title. Four former champions not named Tiger are in this week’s field. I’ve chosen three players from each bracket that look like good bets. I’ve also listed five prominent players that have little chance, and another 13 with absolutely no shot at winning. This handicap sheet could help you make some dough, and avoid some losses, though of course we know that gambling on golf is not legal in the U.S. Right. For a complete listing of the bracket, see the tournament brackets.

Jones Division
Tiger Woods – For a 1,001 reasons, which you already know.
J.B. Holmes – If he can somehow get by Tiger, which is not so farfetched given his recent playoff win over Mickelson at the FBR, and his long ball, then the rest of his bracket looks soft compared to the other three.
K.J. Choi – The South Korean’s off to a strong start (won Sony Open, 7t last week), and he has a winner’s demeanor.
Little Chance – Rory Sabbatini, Tiger’s pal, is a fine player, but is inconsistent in the clutch.
No Way – Mark Calcavecchia, Bradley Dredge, Robert Karlsson, Soren Hansen
Note: Tiger and Rory Sabbatini could play each other if they both win their first three matches.

Hogan Division
Henrik Stenson – He won here last year. In 2008 on the European Tour he’s finished 2t, 2, 6t. Henrik hits lots of greens and is long, so this course is perfect for his power game.
Adam Scott – He won three weeks ago with a closing 61, and Butch Harmon says he the man to beat Tiger. It is time, past time really, that he begins to cash in on his enormous potential.
Martin Kaymer – The world’s 21^st ranked player is my surprise long-shot. He is flying in under the radar, this being his PGA Tour debut. He’s poised to repeat Stenson’s feat by parlaying a strong start on the European Tour into a win in Tucson. Stenson in 2007: 8, 7t, W – then a win at the Match Play. Kaymer in 2008: W, MC, 2 – then ?
Little Chance – Ernie Els – Ernie has a poor record at this event (6-7) for a player of his caliber, and is not really committed to playing here. He is a last minute entrant. Plus he’s been a terrible closer over the last year.
No Way – Shingo Katayama, Brendan Jones, Tori Taniguchi

Player Division
Phil Mickelson – His playoff loss at the FBR and his win last week at Riviera indicate that he is on top of his game. A former US Amateur Champion (match play), Phil has a 12-8 record in this event. The long ball and his gambling style should be work well on this course, with its reachable par 5s and a couple of driveable par 4s.
Stuart Appleby – He’s a long hitter who’s game should fit this course, and he has three top eights in three starts this year. It’s about time he won an upper echelon event to go with his eight rather ordinary tour wins.
Justin Rose – His time is coming. Rose finished 12t or better in all four majors in 2007, proving that he could be finally be developing into a prime time player.
Little Chance - Geoff Ogilvy – It’s hard to argue with the 2006 US Open winner’s W and 2^nd in his only two starts in this event, but he’s recorded three MCs in his first three starts of ’08 on the PGA Tour.
Little Chance #2 – Vijay Singh – His recent collapse at the ATT does not bode well for his confidence, and his age starting to tell. He’s notched only four top 4s in last 27 starts over the last 12 months on the PGA Tour
No Way – Pat Perez, Peter Hanson

Snead Division
Steve Stricker – The #3 seed overall has been steady so far this year. He is a former winner of this event, and is a great putter
Padraig Harrington – The 2007 British Open champion opened his PGA Tour campaign with a strong start in LA (3t).
Jim Furyk – He’s accurate, hits lots of greens, and is consistent. He’s off to a slow start to by his standards, so it’s time to kick it up a notch. Gritty competitor. Still, only 7-7 in this event.
Little Chance – Angel Cabrera – His only top 10 on the PGA Tour in his last 17 events (2007-08) was his win at the US Open. Can you spell FLUKE?
No Way – Anders Hansen, Nick Dougherty, Colin Montgomerie, Miguel A. Jimenez.

Tiger’s Road to the Finals
I’ve mapped out Tiger’s Road to the Finals, knowing full well that I’ve got a better chance of winning the lotto than of seeing this exact scenario unfold.

• Round 1 J.B. Holmes - Holmes has a chance in an 18 hole sprint.
• Round 2 Mike Weir - Tiger’s revenge for the President’s Cup.
• Round 3 Zach Johnson - Tiger’s revenge for the Masters.
• Round 4 K.J. Choi - Too much power for K.J.
• Semi-Finals Henrik Stenson - Henrik’s got a good at an upset. Bombs away.
• Finals Phil Mickelson - The dream match of the Woods Era.

O’Hern the Giant Killer
Nick O’Hern has twice knocked Woods out of this championship. However the likelihood of a Woods/O’Hern rematch this time is close to zero as both players would have to make the finals.

I’ve stuck my neck out and listed my picks and pans. Agree, or disagree? Who are your favorites to become the Match Play King of 2008?