Capelle On Golf

Writers like to speculate on what a fallen idol’s children will think about their deviant parent thanks to ready access to the internet.

On the net a kid can find a wealth of dirt on dear old dad - contrarian views to those that he or she will hear at home on the couch from the perp - all articulated in such a convincing manner by writers skilled a turning a phrase and making a point.

Well, I wonder if the same holds true for Elin Woods. What are her sources? Does she scour the net for alternative points of view? Where does she get her information? What is shaping her opinion of Tiger? Is she relying solely on the actions of the man himself, or does she check in with writers, some of considerable intelligence, to gain input?

Exhibit A: During his speech Woods laid down the criteria for the New Tiger. Family first was now a mandate and not just a politically correct utterance to polish his image. To regain Elin’s trust, he was going to continue to work hard on his personal game while putting his golf game on hold:

“I do plan to return to golf one day. I just don’t know when that day will be. I don’t rule out that it will be this year.”

Anyone blessed with half a brain would infer from this downgrading of golf’s place in Tiger’s life that a return to the game would be later, not sooner. And yet, only 25 days after Woods completed his crash course on Personal Renewal 101, he announced that he was returning to competitive golf at the Masters. We should have seen this coming because, only nine days after the speech, he began hitting balls across the street from his home in Isleworth.

Two big possibilities: (1) the tired and broken down version of Woods at the speech was the beneficiary of a miracle cure, or (2) the speech and everything that happened in the days before and after it was all part of a carefully orchestrated plan by him and his team to get him back to competitive golf ASAP. An impending deadline creates a sense of urgency, and none is bigger than a fast approaching major - so, for Tiger, the choice became clear: continue with the charade, or get real and get back to golf.

So, what is poor Elin to think of Tiger’s sudden return to golf? Did she buy into his pitch for why it was the best thing for her and the family? Did she give Tiger enough rope to hang himself? That is, did Elin let him make his first big post speech decision on his own - he plays, they are done - he doesn’t (showing his commitment to change) and they have a chance? Or, is Elin is done with Tiger no matter what he does?

This leads to the big question: what information is Elin seeking and using to make her decisions? Is she relying on counselors, family, and friends? Or does her world of influencers include leading thinkers in the media? Is she entertaining alternative points of view? If so, then she would have every reason to doubt that her Tiger is anything but the Old Tiger brandishing a new message. Indeed, Elin would almost certainly be among the skeptics if she read this from Ray McNulty of the Scripps Howard News Service:

“I owe it to my family to become a better person. I owe it to those closest to me to become a better man. That’s where my focus will be,” said Woods. But, apparently, only until next month, until he tees off at Augusta, until he renews his pursuit of a different kind of happiness — Jack Nicklaus’ all-time record of 18 major championships. Then, his focus will be where it has always been … at least during daylight hours. On golf.

Or this, from Christine Brennan of USA Today:

But here’s the problem: It makes so much sense to come back to The Masters that you know Tiger had thought of it before his speech. He’s smart; he had envisioned every scenario. Yet he and his team chose specific words, and the tone in which they were delivered, to paint a picture of a man and his struggles that ended up being misleading, if not downright untrue.

And from Lawrence Donegan of the Guardian:

Yet, if Woods tries to dodge the microphones, he will never be able to escape the charge that, in announcing he will come back at the first major championship of 2010, he has once again put himself above the game and, worse still, put his own narrow interests above those of his fellow competitors.

And the clincher, courtesy of Gerry Callahan of the Boston Herald:

In an effort to rebuild his brand, Tiger apparently has convinced Elin to stick around for a while, but that was before we learned what a sick individual he truly is. We know she’s been playing along so far, but can she really overlook this? Could any self-respecting woman?

To sum up their opinions, Woods is: (1) focused on golf, not family, (2) his speech was misleading, (3) he’s still putting his interests ahead of everyone else’s, and (4) Elin is just a pawn in his game. So, if Elin reads and believes Tiger’s clippings, their relationship is in even bigger trouble than popular wisdom has it. And if she doesn’t read them, then the poor lady is as gullible as the rest of us who bought into his apology speech and his family man act over the last half dozen years.

And why does this private matter even matter? Because Woods’ state of mind and hence his game, at least in the near term, depends on his ability to keep his wife in the fold. If he succeeds, it will be back to the business of the W by the U.S. Open, if not the Masters. And if he fails, the time lost from a costly and messy divorce could seriously jeopardize his chances of ever becoming golf’s Best Ever.

The media is having a field day pontificating on the ramifications of Tiger Woods’ return to golf. How his comeback looks to the world, his new PR guru, the timing of the announcement, quotes from the other players, what’s up with Elin, Tim Finchem’s bla bla, how it’s going to be bigger than Obama’s inauguration on TV, how the town of Augusta is going to be swallowed up whole, etc, etc.

But what about the most fundamental question of all? Can he win his fifth Masters? Will he win it? No chance, regardless of what the bookies think (Ladbroke’s has him at 3-1 as of this morning) Here’s why.

1 - He’s not impervious to pressure
People assume that Woods is impervious to pressure, that it brings out his best game. Sometimes, but not always. One example: You can bet he put everything he had into the 2009 PGA, and yet he came up empty in the clutch. And that was then - a regular, run of the mill pre scandal major. Another example: he tried his guts out at the 2006 Masters, but could not make the putts fall when he needed to, enabling Phil Mickelson to win.

The 2010 Masters will be the first of Woods’ post scandal majors, with no transitionary event to get used to the madness, and to answer the questions he’ll surely be asked. As such, Woods’ return to golf will carry with it far more pressure than he’s ever played under before at a time when his psyche should be at its weakest ever prior to a major (unless, of course, he is a sociopath and nothing ever bothers him). The pressures he faces:

• Woods carries the expectations of a new season with him to the first tee of every Masters.
• He knows that winning the first major can lead to a great season (2002 - 2 majors, 2005, 2 majors).
• Winning the Masters gives him a shot at the Grand Slam, which would make him the Best Ever when combined with his 14 other titles.
• A win would pull him one closer to Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors.
• A win would draw him to within one of Nicklaus’ record of 6 green jackets.
• His drive for perfection puts him under intense pressure on every shot.
• Unless Williams’ “I knew nothing” was for Elin’s benefit, and thus a Tiger inspired ploy to retain him on Team Tiger, their relationship will put an additional strain on this year’s event.
• He wants to end his major’s drought, which will reach 22 months in April.
• And, of course, the whole world is watching and dissecting this extremely private man’s every move.

2 - Ongoing issues with Elin
During his speech one month ago he said his family is his number one priority. If we are to take him at his word, then he’s got to be worried about whether Elin is going to stay or go. Despite any assurances she may have given him, it would seem that nothing could, as of now, be certain.

Conspiracy theory: Elin lowers the boom on Tiger right before the Masters, possibly as a payback, taking his mind completely off his game. Hey, this is as believable as anything else that’s circulating about America’s most widely watched couple.

3 - The unanswered questions = unwanted baggage
Woods knows the questions are coming - about what really happened on 11/27, Dr. Galea and PEDs, why he’s keeping Williams, his therapy, was he (is he) addicted to Vicodin, what did Elin really do that night, etc. etc. He should hold a press conference well before the Masters and clear the air, but that does not fit with his modus operandi. Instead, he will hold a press conference at the Masters and begin it with a control statement, such as: “I know there is ongoing curiosity about issues in my private life, but we are here for golf this week - nothing can or should interfere with the celebration of golf that is the Masters. So, I welcome questions only about golf.” By failing to clear the air, Woods will continue to carry this baggage with him, possibly to the detriment of his vaunted mental game.

4 - His record at Augusta of late is not as great as it appears
The hangover from Woods’ 12 shot win 13 years ago continues to cloud people’s perceptions of his ability to dominate at Augusta National. In truth, his record at Augusta is, by his standards, quite ordinary over the last seven years. He’s only won once, and he was lucky to get that one in 2005 - he made that ridiculously lucky chip at the 16th, then Chris DiMarco’s chip on the 72nd hole lipped out. The only other one that he contended strongly for was the 2007 edition, but he failed to make the putts that counted on the back nine.

Post Big Years
2003 - 9 back - 15t
2004 - 11 back - 22t
Woods in the Haney Era
2005  Won -  playoff after bogeying the last two hole of regulation
2006  3 back - 3t - missed the putts that Mickelson made on Sunday
2007  2 back - 2t  - couldn’t mount a charge in the high scoring conditions
2008  3 back - 2 - only this close because Immelman double bogeyed 16
2009  4 back - 6t - never a factor

In short, Woods with several tune up events and far less pressure has been unable to get the job done in six of the last seven. Now, with no competitive golf going into the event and an airliner full of baggage, there is no way he can pull this off.

5 - Heckling from the crowd
I get a kick out of those who say that the controlled environment at the Masters makes it the perfect place for Woods to return to golf. Maybe there will be less media scrutiny because TMZ and company will not be allowed on the premises. But as for the fans, their overall superior behavior entirely misses the point: it only takes one or two bad apples to ruin a player’s chances. Here’s why: The typical Masters is decided by three shots or less.
The last 20 years:
4  in a Playoff
4  by 1 shot
6  by 2 shots
4  by 3 shots
1  by 5 shots
1  by 12 shots

That’s 70% by two shots or less, and 90% by three shots or less. In short, the winning margin, even for Woods (with one exception), is very small.

If one or two hecklers scream out during Woods’ shots on one or more occasions, that could be enough to turn a win into a second or third. Yes, 99.9% of the crowd will be well behaved - but that rogue element could be Woods’ undoing - and there is nothing that can be done about them except to throw them out - after their deed has been done.

Conspiracy theory: One misguided fan out to make a name for himself (think streakers at ball games or the horn blower at the curling finals at the Olympics) might risk his day at the Masters for the thrill of costing Woods a Masters.

6 - The other guys really can play great golf
There are a number of superb golfers who can win the Masters, whether Woods contends or not. They don’t all choke at crunch time, though it sometimes seems that way. One or more of the favorites or a member the field will get hot. And history shows that, other than that fluke blowout 13 years ago, Woods has failed every year since to blowout the competition. So, Woods at best, could win a hotly contested Masters, but this assumes that he can drive the ball reasonably well (not likely given the rust and his swing flaws), that he can make the key putts (he’s missing them in the majors now), and that he can close the deal (again, no certainty, post 2009 PGA).

Everyone is counting down the days to the Masters - only 22 to go. We can hardly wait until it all unfolds: the Tiger Woods Comeback Story, to be followed by the story of the 2010 Masters Champion, who will almost certainly not be named Woods.

No matter because the Big Picture looks bright again for fans of the great quest. Woods is back in the game, and come June at Pebble Beach, he may just be ready to resume his climb up Mount Nicklaus. Now that’s what I really care about. How about you?

Ernie Els victory at the WGC-CA has sounded the alarm for the great rivalry of the coming years - Els vs. Mickelson for number two of the Woods Era.

Going into the WGC Els had won only once on the PGA Tour in the last six years, but he did post a couple of top tens in the last two majors in 2009. So, even though he crossed the 40 threshold last October, there may be life left yet in the Big Easy.

Now before I concentrate on Els-Mickelson, let’s take a quick look at the other two triple major winners of the Woods Era to see why they don’t belong in the debate. Phil vs. Vijay is no contest. Both have won three majors, but Phil leads in seconds, 6-1, thirds, 6-1, and top10s, 29-22. He’s got an eight year age advantage to build on these numbers. And, to seal this debate, the putting challenged Vijay Singh has zero chance to win a fourth major.

Harrington won three majors in quick order, two while Tiger Woods was absent. But other than these Ws, this 38 year old’s record in the majors is sorely lacking. Els leads him in seconds, 6-0, thirds, 4-0, and top 10s, 30-13. If Harrington won a fourth major and the others remained at three, then some of the winning-is-everything “experts” might elevate him to second best of the Woods Era. But, based on Mickelson’s and Els’ overall record in the majors, you would have to give one of them the nod.

Back to Els vs. Mickelson. Els is committed to his game, his knee troubles are evidently a thing of the past, and he’s got momentum going into the Masters. Mickelson’s game has slipped from its peak late last year, but he could find the magic at any time. So, the race is on as these two future Hall of Famers seek desperately to add to their records in the twilight of their major contending years. As it stands, they are virtually tied for second best, based on their records in the majors:

• Both have three wins.
• Both have won two different majors.
• Both have a Top 10 Slam to their credit.
• They are tied with 6 seconds each.
• Mickelson leads in thirds, 6-4.
• Els has a slight edge in top 10s, 30-29.

The first one to win a major would grab the undisputed lead in this rivalry, possibly for good. For Els, a win in the Masters would give him three legs of the Career Grand Slam, leaving only the PGA to complete the set. In his last six PGAs he finished 5t, 4t, 3, 6t, so his game is obviously suited to the season’s last major. At Whistling Straits, the site of this year’s PGA, he missed the playoff by one shot in 2004

A third green jacket for Mickelson would give him four majors, but he would still own but two legs of the Career Grand Slam. But a win might ignite another surge of major winning golf similar to 2004-2006 when he quickly added two majors after breaking the ice at the ’04 Masters.

I know, it’s tough to ignore the Tiger Woods Sideshow. But whether he plays anytime soon or not, Els and Mickelson and their duel for Second Best could make for some interesting spectating in 2010, and hopefully beyond.

It is possible that Tiger Woods was 100% sincere with his apology.

But as he said, his actions will tell the story. And they are beginning to indicate a gap between his words and deeds. For starters, his people say that he had to make the announcement on the Friday (Feb. 19) of the WGC Match Play because he was scheduled to return to rehab the following day. Well, he did fly off for counseling at the Meadows in Arizona, but that lasted only a week - by the following Sunday , he was on the range working on his game.

As a result, many observers wondered why he didn’t give the speech on the Monday or Tuesday (March 1 or 2) following his return. Really, the answer is quite simple: the later date didn’t fit in with Woods’ carefully orchestrated return to golf:

I do plan to return to golf one day, I just don’t know when that day will be. I don’t rule out that it will be this year. When I do return, I need to make my behavior more respectful of the game.

A rationale, reasonable, and sane person would have gathered from the above that it was uncertain that Woods was going to play this year, but that if he did, it would surely be latter in the year. Many guessed at the U.S. Open, which would have given him three more months to work on his life, then a month to work on his game, including a tuneup at the Memorial. Considering the supposed devastation to his psyche, this would have been the minimum time necessary for him to even begin to evolve into the New Tiger.

Events of the last two weeks, however, refute the Take-His-Time-for-Renewal approach to rebuilding his life and winning back his wife. Seems Woods is now on the fast track to return to the game. In the Elin Department, things appear to be going very well - Radaronline reports that they were seen kissing. He’s been hitting balls for 10 days. And now Hanky Haney has joined him on the range at Isleworth. It seems unlikely that he would be there if Woods was not getting ready to return to competition.

Back to the timing of the apology. In Tiger Time, it has been eons since he created the  impression that he would not be playing soon. If he had given the apology speech on March 1 or 2, that would have been only 6-7 days before Haney showed up. No one would have then bought into that   “I just don’t know when that day will be” routine. So, the timing of the speech looks like part of a well thought out plan for manipulating the fans and the media, prepping them for his return to golf. Seventeen days, including a week of rehab, is WAY longer than 6-7 days!

In any case, we will have our answer very soon, most likely not later than next Friday, which is the deadline for committing to Bay Hill. If Woods plays there, he’s playing in the Masters, done deal. And he likely doesn’t want to show up at Augusta with no real competitive golf (with all dues respect to the Tavistock Cup) under his belt since November, five months previously.

As for Elin Woods, if he plays in the Masters, and possibly the Tavistock Cup and/or at Bay Hill, then he will have already proven to her that golf comes first, family second - and that his words don’t match his deeds. But the poor woman, wanting their reconciliation to work so badly, may be too blind to see this.

So here’s the bottom line: if Woods plays in the Masters, it’s the Old Tiger pretending to be the New Tiger. And if he doesn’t, then maybe he was sincere about his mandate to change. At any rate, it is all coming to a head. Let the countdown to Deadline Day begin - 10 - 9 - 8 -

Tiger Time Line
Feb. 18 - Seen hitting balls.
Feb. 19 - Woods gives apology speech.
Feb. 28 - Is seen practicing on the range.
March 8 - Haney is reported to be on the range working with Woods
March 19 - Deadline day for committing to Bay Hill
March 22 - Tavistock
March 25 - Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 8 - Masters

I just don’t get it, and neither does anybody in golf except for the man who hit the shot - Rickie Fowler.

As he approached his second shot on the par 5 15th hole of the W.M. Phoenix Open Fowler was in desperate need of a birdie. He had completed the hard work, piping a clutch drive 305 yards down the gut. Playing lift, clean, and tee it up, he could have any kind of lie he wanted for the remaining 230 yards. In essence, he had reduced the par 5 to a long par 3, and no pro ever lays up on a par 3 since they took Cypress Point out of the rotation for the AT&T Pebble Beach in 1992.

Fowler, who was raised on motocross, is known to play fast and aggressive. But he slowed down, pondered his fate, then bunted the ball 152 yards down the fairway, setting up an 80 yard wedge shot. Mind you, this is a player who hit 16 greens on Sunday in crunch time and tied for fifth in GIR for the week.

His wedge shot spun back off the front of the green and he had to eventually cozy in a 4’, 2” putt just to save par! Naturally he went on to lose by one shot to Hunter Mahan, who closed with a 65 to Fowler’s 68, so all fingers pointed at his strategic blunder.

Some said it was a business decision. Following that line of thinking, let’s look at the numbers. First off, the worst case scenario: he hits it in the water, drops out in three, pitches on, two putts, makes bogey. This would drop him from solo second into a tie for second with Y.E. Yang. His paycheck drops from $648k to $528k. Big deal. His money for the year would still be $755,431, about $90k above what it took to make the top 125 in 2009.

Fowler earned 33.60 WGR points, shooting up to #77 from #192. If he made bogey, that would have cost him 5.6 points. Again, not a big deal as he still needs about 60 more points to move into the top 50 to qualify for the Masters.

Now, if he had gone for the green and made birdie, he might have won the tournament in a playoff - or perhaps Mahan would have felt the additional heat and hit his drive in the water on 18. As it was, he missed going in the lake by a few yards, then struggled to make par.

A win would have given Fowler his ticket to Augusta, the additional WGR points would have elevated him to #52, his paycheck would have grown by $432k and, most importantly, he’d have the W monkey off his back. Add it all up and Fowler had a lot more to gain than lose by going for it. Let’s hope next time in a similar position he does.

Does in your face, super repetitive marketing bother you? I know it bugs me, and there is no worse offender than Titleist.

About 11:40 ET I tried to log on PGATour.com to check out the leaderboard for the W.M. Phoenix Open but their server was down. I then tried the Golf Channel’s leaderboard and met with success, and a sea of super bold Titleist logos that were strategically positioned a quarter inch to the left of each player’s tournament score.

A grand total of 31 of the top 52 players were playing Titleist balls, so their name dominated the leaderboard - it was like looking at Angelina Jolie with her top off - what do you think your eyes are going to be attracted to?

While counting the players in the top 52, I accidentally clicked on a logo - and wouldn’t you know it - I was instantly transported to the Titleist web site.

Now I understand the a company’s got to market  it’s products, but they don’t need to jam their logo down our throats as Titleist has done. If they must remind us that most pros play their ball, why not put a tasteful little T in parentheses next to each users name? As it stands, their over-the-top reminder only alienates me and makes me want to play another brand.

I just tried the PGATour’s leaderboard and it is back up, with no logos. What a relief. In closing, I ask you to take The Great Titleist Leaderboard Challenge:

Golf Channel: http://www.thegolfchannel.com/pga-tour/2010-waste-management-phoenix-open/scores/?v.pos=399&h.pos=0
PGATour: Web site

And the winner is…?

Tiger Woods was a 30 handicapper of life who refused to get lessons. Now he is seeking instruction. After 45 days in therapy, he’s cut his handicap to 26. And yet, despite his  obvious progress, the media expects him to play now like a scratch player.

That’s a bit premature. Woods has serious and deep seated issues and so, providing he stays the course, he will be a work in progress for a long time to come. Hence, his uncertainty over his return to golf.

A hopefully more enlightened Tiger Woods knows that he’s going to have to subject himself to a real press conference when he returns to golf. But, for the moment, he did well just to stand in front of an audience of millions, give his message on The State of Tiger Woods, however contrived it seemed, and not suffer a complete breakdown in the process. As it was, the media got 1,500 words to chew on, and so they gorged themselves. Here’s a sampling from the non-believers:

“Tiger Woods came across as fake and phony.”
Stephen A. Smith - Philadelphia Inquirer

“This staged appearance was just a slightly different message in the same format: one-way, controlled, calculated, and with a strong dose of personal self-interest.”
Sally Jenkins - Washington Post

“Woods, who says he now understands that he’s not above the rules of common decency, is still above answering questions from those who are paid to represent a public that has helped make him a billionaire.”
John Feinstein  - Washington Post

While the doubters were having a field day, some observers were convinced that this Tiger was changing his stripes.  ESPN’s Rick Reilly said, “I thought it (the talk) was terrific.” The Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee said, “From a PR standpoint this was a home run.” And apology expert Lauren Bloom added that “I am convinced he spoke from the heart. A-.” And, “He was clearly remorseful,” according to Jim Nantz.

While the cases for the old and new Tigers are quite convincing, we won’t really know the answers for a long time to come. But at least we have benchmarks, courtesy of Woods, with which to monitor his progress when he does become public again. His agenda:

• No more cheating on his wife.
• No more special Tiger Rules.
• A life of integrity. Character and decency are what really count.
• Acting like a role model.
• Buddhism will again be his spiritual compass.

• He wants a balanced life   - himself and his wife children.
• He’s committed to helping others someday with similar problems.
• Support to others who are seeking help someday.
• He is coming back to golf “one day”.
• His behavior will show more respect for the game.

The most poignant part of his speech was the mandate from Elin Woods: “As Elin pointed out to me, my real apology to her will not come in the form of words; it will come from my behavior over time.”

Tiger Woods ran into the tree on November 27, then scurried off into hiding.
Eighty-four days later he is coming out of hiding at a press conference scheduled for Friday at 11am at PGA Tour headquarters. It will be telecast on the Golf Channel.

Over the next couple of days you’ll be reading and hearing endless speculation about what he’s going to say. The questions we can’t wait to hear answered include:

• Is he returning to competitive golf this year?
• If so, when?
• Is he going to play a regular schedule?
• Has he been working on his game?

• Are he and Elin really going to try to remain together?
• How are the kids?
• Is he worried about the fan’s behavior towards him?
• Does he still care as much about his quest to become the best?

• What epiphanies has he had during his time off?
• Is his family now his top priority?
• Will he apologize to his fans and sponsors?
• Will he appear as the same old Woods, or will there be signs that the most stubborn man in golf has changed his stripes?

The Match Play is all well and good, but, in a bit of irony, Woods will be upstaging the event that’s sponsored by Accenture, the first company that officially cut ties with him. A coincidence? At any rate, I’m counting the hours to Friday morning as I’m sure you are as well.

Dustin Johnson Overpowers the Field
For those who have been missing Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson did a good imitation with his power game as he turned the Monterey Peninsula’s par fives into par fours.

Despite his long and accurate shots into the par fives, Johnson was leaking oil, having bogeyed 17 to go three over for the day. But, with the tournament on the line, on the 18th tee with water left and OB right, he split the middle with a mammoth  tee shot, avoiding the Ocean to the left and the OB right. He hit a great miss, short and right into the greenside bunker, blasted to 3 feet and calmly sank the knee knocker to defend his title.

Earlier in the day, Johnson had hit a 325 yard blast on the par 5 sixth, followed by a 204 yard 6-iron uphill to 4 feet for his third eagle in two days. The day before at Spyglass Hill Johnson’s 64 featured two one putt eagles on the par fives. For the week he was 11 under on the 14 five pars. In comparison,  David Duval (-3) and JB Holmes (-6), who finished a shot back, lost eight and five shots respectively to Johnson on the long holes.

So much of the talk of who would step up while Woods is gone has been focused on the now familiar suspects - Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, and the gang. Now we must  add the 6’, 4” athletic Johnson and his power game to the mix. With his ability to decimate the par 5s, he could be a threat at Augusta!

Phenom Watch
Rickie Fowler and Ryo Ishikawa got a good look at each other as they were paired together for the first three rounds. Ishikawa then departed, having missed the cut by three shots. In the first round he used 34 putts (horrible for a pro), then hit only seven greens (awful) at Spyglass Hill. This performance on top of a 32t last week suggests that he still has far to go to justify his 35th position in the WGR.
Fowler posted his second respectable showing in five starts, finishing 27t. More encouraging was his GIR stat (he was 8t), which indicates that his swing, which he’s struggled with in the early going, may be coming around.

Pebble’s Volcano Hole
You’ve perhaps played one of the volcano holes in miniature golf where the ball will roll far from the cup if you miss. Well, that’s what the par 5 fourteenth was playing like thanks to the shaved area to the left and behind the smallest target in pro golf. The result: nines by Paul Goydos, Bryce Molder, and Alex Prugh. If they had made bogeys, Goydos moves from 5t to 2t, Molder from 10t to 4t, and Prugh from 27t to 10t.
Let’s hope and pray that the USGA does not mimic this ridiculous set up for the Open in June.

NEW: The USGA, after considering the play on the 14th, has decided to add some rough about 5 yards to the left of the green for the U.S. Open. Good for them!

David Duval - Second Winner
We all love a great comeback story, and none would have been better than a Duval victory considering that his last win came in the 2001 British Open. He did, however, manage a second, and he played some of the best golf on Sunday, closing with a 69 on a day when 68 was the low and only seven players broke 70. While the leaders were gasping for air, Duval coolly rolled home good sized birdie putts on the 11th (19’,9”), 13th (17’,5”) and at the 17th  (11’,8”), which momentarily tied him for the lead. Let’s hope he can build on this fine showing rather than disappearing from the leaderboard as he did following his 2t at last year’s U.S. Open.

The U.S. Open Preview
Much of the talk Sunday was about how Pebble Beach was playing and how it would be different for the Open when the course is expected to dry out, and the rough is taller. Over the first three days, the pins were set in easier than normal position for a tour event to accommodate the amateurs. On Sunday, they toughened them up, leading to few rounds under 70 (see above). The field of 69 averaged 73.2. In 1972 when Jack Nicklaus won the Open at Pebble Beach, the winds gusted to 35 MPH during the final round and the field averaged 78.8!

Phil Mickelson is Close
Mickelson is starting to sound like Woods in 2004 as he keeps telling us he’s getting close. Trouble is, he should already be there as he is coming off a strong 2009 and has been working hard on his game. His lackluster start to the year (19, 45t, 8t) is reminiscent of the second half of 2008 when everyone expected him to make a run at #1 in Woods absence, but failed to capitalize on the opportunity, going winless the rest of the season following two titles in the first half of the year.

The three possible combinations for playing Pebble Beach in the AT&T are (assuming a player makes the 54 hole cut) -  rounds 1 and 4, 2 and 4, or 3 and 4. When the players who make the cut are done with the third round, all will have played each of the three courses - Pebble Beach, the Shore Course, and Spyglass Hill. That would seem democratic enough, but it is not.

While no stats (at least none that I know of) confirm this theory, it has got to be an advantage to play Pebble Beach on days 3 and 4. This rotation enables a player to get in sync with the conditions, and use that knowledge the next day, whereas those who play Pebble Beach in their first or second rounds then play the other course, lose the feel of Pebble and it’s crusty greens, then have to come back to it in the fourth round.

Another quirky aspect of the pairings is that they are so obviously rigged for Saturday’s telecast. There are six combinations of course and starting tee (first or tenth). Only one of those six - Pebble Beach/first tee on Saturday  - will show a player on TV and as he finishes his round on the 18th hole. Now take a moment and see if you can come up with a few names who TV would like to show on Saturday.

Times up. Here are the key players the TV people (CBS and the Golf Channel) must have told the PGA Tour they must have on camera on Saturday. Some of their selections for this valuable exposure are most deserving, while others are strictly a ploy to hype ratings. In the deserving category we have Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia, Brian Gay, and Rory Sabbatini. Among those who are getting a shot at prime time because they are of interest to the public and they have shown immense potential are Ryo Ishikawa and Rickie Fowler.

Bringing up the rear is John Daly, who was assigned to the Saturday/First Tee at Pebble Beach segment for painfully obvious reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of his game, which is totally lacking. (After two rounds he’s in 99t and likely won’t make it to Sunday.) CBS and the Golf Channel have undoubtedly conspired to promote Being John Daly, which is scheduled to premiere on March 2, so those of you who can stomach Saturday’s celebrity infested telecast will, when not watching these hackers, get to ogle Daly’s god awful game and wardrobe.

So mark your calendars, because 2/13/10 is the day when the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, thanks to Daly and the rating starved networks, turned this venerable sporting event into reality TV.