Capelle On Golf

Everyone has an opinion on the ruling that kept Dustin Johnson out of a playoff at the PGA. And that includes you, the fan. Letters poured into the editors of Golf Digest.com, articles appeared everywhere accompanied by rants and raves, and posts and comments galore at geoffshackelford.com.

And, most importantly, a poll at ESPN revealed what the fans think about the fiasco. It turns out that only 41% of you think that Johnson should have been penalized - which also means that a strong majority of 59% think it was a mistake.

These percentages give us our baseline. But, thanks to ESPN’s state-by-state maps, we can see voter tendencies across our great land, and internationally as well. As suspected, these maps revealed voter bias.

Johnson comes from South Carolina, so guess what - 65% of the voters from his home state feel that he was given a raw deal, or 6% more than the national average.

Now consider the great state of Wisconsin, home of Steve Stricker and Whistling Straits. Its residents are justly proud of having hosted the PGA, so they got a bit defensive at the possibility that their Pete Dye masterpiece was in any way flawed. The result: only 52% of the fans in WI believed that Johnson got a raw deal, the fewest in any state.

Voters from around the world also participated. Predictably, they were proud that Martin Kaymer, a non-American, had won, so they wanted nothing to take away from his victory. As a result, only 53% thought Johnson got screwed.

Despite the outrage, nothing is going to change the final result, though perhaps golf will take the steps to make sure this never happens again. Besides filling in 80% of the bunkers at Whistling Straits that never come into play, even for 30 handicappers, golf needs to have better trained officials accompany the groups in contention, especially those with huge galleries.

The overhead views of Johnson as he approached his tee shot on 18 while surrounded by a horde of fans made it clear that this situation was unlike 99.9% of shots from off the fairway those not in contention face. In other words, those in contention need the very best in officiating.

Did Johnson get a fair shake from the official with his group? I’ve read that he did, and that he didn’t. The later opinion was best expressed by John Feinstein on the Golf Channel. He queried several top officials and they were unanimous in their belief that an official should have been all over the situation, advising Johnson about the state of his ball - that is was in a hazard.

Johnson has said that it never dawned on him that his ball was in a bunker, which means that his assigned official did not do his job, at least not in the opinion of the other top official that Feinstein queried.

Johnson obviously did not get word that he had incurred a penalty until after attempting his putt on 18 for what he thought would have given him the win. That means, of course, that his penalty was assessed from long range, from the HD taping of CBS, which the official said Johnson could see if he needed proof. So, officiating could not be done from a distance of five feet, but it could from 250 yards away.

After Johnson played his second, is there any way that the PGA could have not assessed the penalty and still looked like they were not favoring Johnson, and were properly administering the rules? Is there a gray area for interpretation? How about this: the player can assume the best, that his ball was in a position where he could ground his club because there was so little evidence that he was in a bunker that he must be given the benefit of the doubt. Furthermore, that he was able to hit without a warning from the official in charge that he was in a hazard is another point in his favor.

If you listen to the sadness expressed by Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson, both gentleman of the highest caliber, I think it is reasonable to conclude that they would have had no problem with Johnson joining them in the playoff, even if it dropped their theoretical odds of winning from 50% to 33%.

All week long golf was set to come out of the week’s final major as a big winner even though Tiger and Phil failed to contend. Mega-talent Rory McIlroy showed up on the leaderboard again with his third third in the last five majors. The young bombers, such as Johnson and Watson, showed that they had plenty of game, and a throng of new talent, such as Kaymer, Jason Day, and Nick Watney looked to be on the verge of a breakout. And then there was Whistling Straits with its postcard vistas, which compared favorably with Pebble Beach.

The sport was also graced with a shootout for the ages as any of six or seven players had a chance to win on the back nine. And then disaster hit. Now to those of us who know the quirky nature of the game, we sort of understand what happened - its golf - though it’s a side of the game we certainly don’t like. But to those who are casual fans, but who watch the majors and entertain thoughts of taking it up some day, this ridiculous ending could be the thing that keeps them from taking up the game some day.

Martin Kaymer did win the PGA, though you’d be hard pressed to know it considering the media’s coverage following Dustin Johnson’s unfortunate two shot penalty on the 18th hole that kept him out of the playoff. Take the Golf Channel, which spent the first 20 minutes of its wrap up show talking about Johnson’s tragic mistake.

I, however, am going to concentrate on Kaymer, who beat Bubba Watson in a playoff. The first thing you need to know is that I predicted his win in last Tuesday’s post. I quote myself: “If I was forced to take one, it would be Kaymer. He’s won three times on the European Tour in the last 15 months and he’s finished in the top 10 in the last two majors.” The second thing you should now is that I did not follow my own advice, thereby costing myself a cool five grand.

Kaymer has been flying under the radar for the last three years even though he’s only 25, having won five events on the European Tour on his way to the #13 position in the WGR. That he was able to avoid the scrutiny of the American golf media while playing world class golf could be the biggest secret to the low key German’s success.

Consider this evidence: I regularly check out ASAP, which houses transcripts of interviews at important championships. Kaymer was not one of those interviewed on Tuesday. Fair enough, I suppose. But even after shooting a 68 on Friday for a 36 hole total of 140, he was ignored by the media. Finally, after a 67 on Saturday moved him into contention at -9, four back of Nick Watney, his words of wisdom appeared on ASAP.

It would seem that Kaymer has perfected the art of winning in the most boring way possible - no fist pumps, no colorful ensembles, no outrageous quotes. Instead, he’s more like an accountant going about his business. Consider his modest goals. “That was my plan, to secure my card for next year, I think already before that tournament, I had enough money to play and I’m excited to play next year,” said Kaymer. Right. Now, after his win, he’s the #5 ranked player in the world, yet he was worried about qualifying for the PGA Tour.

The last two players who followed such a precise game plan for superstardom were Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. Both had a program that included consistent progress towards the ultimate goal of winning majors. Kaymer appears to be following their script, which included his plan for winning majors:

Well, I think it’s a matter of putting yourself in contention all the time, and I really don’t think that you can win your first major when you’re in contention your first time. I think it takes some time. I’ve put myself in position already a couple times last year, and this year, so I know how it feels going into the final round having a chance to win.

He also set a goal of moving up the ladder that would motivate him, yet keep the pressure off.

But for me, a very good final score would be Top-5. Of course, if I have a chance to win, of course I will do everything to win that tournament. But I don’t want to put too much pressure on myself.

The cameras were forced to follow the laid back German once he took the lead on the sixth hole, then hung near the top the rest of the day. And what we saw from this media shy player was a very cool customer going about his business, much like Nicklaus in his prime. He followed his game plan, which called for strategic tee shots that left him longer approaches on some holes, such on 10 and 15. It proved to be very effective as his card showed only one bogey on Sunday against three birdies - the kind of rock solid golf that Nicklaus played in winning those 18 majors.

Another part of Kaymer’s winning strategy was his ability to make big putts when they counted the most. On the 72nd hole, he rolled in a 15 foot par putt to tie Bubba Watson, who had completed play. Then, after falling a stroke behind after one hole of the three hole aggregate playoff, he hit a brilliant iron 230 yards on the treacherous 17th to within 12 feet, then calmly rolled it in to tie Watson.

On the 18th, Kaymer went into strategy mode again after Watson hit his second in the creek. Kaymer must have figured he was going to score a five at best, but probably a six, so after hitting his drive into the rough, he played a super conservative layup, then hit his 160 yard approach to within 20 feet to all but claim his first major.

So, Martin Kaymer is your 2010 PGA champion, and a most worthy one who will be impossible to forget for these two big reasons: 1) he won this major with three holes of top flight golf after the Johnson fiasco, giving us plenty of shots and time to remember him by, 2) he will win several more majors, every time reminding us of his first. Here’s what he took from the experience, words that could have just as easily come from Nicklaus and Woods as their rocket ships took off:

Obviously it (the tying putt on 18) was a very important putt, but for me, for my future, I think it’s very important that I know whatever happens, I can make those very, very important putts.

And …

The majors, they are the biggest tournaments we play, and just knowing that I can win a tournament like that gives me huge confidence for any other tournament I will play for the rest of my career.

When Kaymer does go on to become one of the top two or three players of the post Woods’ Peak Era, if not the best, nothing should be allowed to detract from his accomplishments.

Tiger Woods (72) and Phil Mickelson (73) stayed put on moving day, shooting themselves out of contention. Meanwhile, those who worked their way into the top 10 going into Sunday averaged 67.2 on a soft and vulnerable Whistling Straits.

Nick Watney (66), who is taught by Butch Harmon, was making every putt and looked to have this all but wrapped up on the 18th tee. But his four shot lead turned into three after he visited the rough twice, giving a bit of hope to horde of challengers that now rest within five shots.

Watney would be no big surprise considering his seventh at the Masters and 7t at the British Open, both this year. He is nine under on the 12 par fives, which ties him for first, and is a sign that he’s hitting it long and straight. And then there is his demeanor. Paired in the third round with Smiling Matt Kuchar, he outsmiled his perennially sunny playing partner, giving the appearance that he is enjoying himself.

Will he be smiling on the first tee when it hits him that the tournament is his to win or lose? Who knows? Certainly the oddsmakers like him as Ladbrokes has him at 6/4. So maybe he will close like Nicklaus or Woods, or perhaps he’ll do a Dustin Johnson. With a three shot lead, he is expected to win, a burden that has proved too much for countless players in his position..

Should the 29 year old Watney falter, we’ve got a foursome of kids looking to break the ice - all big talents for whom greatness has been predicted. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy (67), who opened the tournament by playing his first four holes in three over, but then played his next 50 holes in 13 under while making  17 birdies, two bogeys, and one double. The oddsmakers have him at 3/1, which I think is the best bet among Watney’s closest followers simply because he seems to be the heir apparent to Woods as the game’s top player.

McIlroy, 21, has done nothing but break par after his debacle at the Open, firing nine straight rounds under par on difficult courses. Dustin Johnson (67), 26, who is also at 10 under, is likewise showing that he can bounceback from a round in the 80s in a major. He is hitting it miles and, like Watney, has played the par fives in nine under. Ladbrokes has him at 4/1.

The next group at eight under includes Martin Kaymer (25), Jason Day (22), and Wen Chong Liang (32). Kaymer, who was my pre tourney pick, is now listed at 10/1 after Saturday’s 67. He’s got three top eights in his last four majors, and is positioned for another won on Sunday. He seems to have the kind of cool demeanor that is conducive to withstanding the heat.

Jason Day boasted a couple of years ago that he was ready to challenge Woods. Well, he’s yet to face Woods head-to-head, but the talented  Australian did win his first PGA Tour event this year, and his six birdie, no bogey, 66 has him positioned to capture a major should Watney falter. He’s at 25/1, which seems like a good bet. Liang from China shot the tournaments best on Saturday, a 64, to put himself into the thick of it. Should he win, he could ignite a golf boom in the world’s most populous nation. Like Day, he is at 25/1.

The final foursome within five shots of Watney includes Jim Furyk (14/1), Zach Johnson (33/1), Steve Elkington (66/1), and Jason Dufner (80-1). To make a charge, a member of this group will have to do well on the par fives. Furyk is one over on them, so I give him little chance to go low enough to win. As for the other three, I can’t see any of these long shots winning.

If Watney keeps cool and plays his game, he will be tough to beat. If not, then we could have a shootout for the ages. And, refreshingly, it looks like one of the great talents in contention will have his breakout major in hand come Sunday night.

Tiger Woods
Woods missed four of the first five greens in places where mere mortals would have made bogeys or worse. But he escaped with pars on all four before missing a four foot birdie putt on the sixth hole. At this point, darkness set in, which is just as well because he was struggling with his C Game and looked prime to head north above the cut line. Unfortunately for Woods, he’ll be forced to go back to work early in the morning, giving him little time to work on his game. The good news, however, is that is going to rain most of the night, and Woods has won eight of his 14 majors on wet courses.

Phil Mickelson
Mickelson drove into a bad lied on the 18th hole, the ninth of his second round. Rather than playing a safe and sane recovery to the fairway, he went for the green, bring a big number into play. He scored a double bogey, leaving him at one over and in danger of missing the cut. But he fought back with a 33 on his second nine to finish at two under, six back of Matt Kuchar, who has one top 10 in his career in the majors, and five back of Nick Watney, whose only two top 10s have come in this year’s majors.

Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy seems determined to atone for his second round meltdown at the British Open. After starting his first round with a bogey and a double to go three over after his first four holes, he’s rebounded strongly, playing the his next 32 holes in eight under. At the beginning of the year I speculated on the chances that McIlroy and Rickie Fowler could be candidates for Best Ever. Seven months later, it appears that Fowler, as well as he’s played at times, lacks the consistency, having already missed eight cuts on the PGA Tour. McIlroy is a different story. He won at Quail Hollow with a closing 62 and recorded his second third place finish in a major at the Open. Which brings us to the PGA - if he is, indeed, a Best Ever candidate, there is no time like now for him to start winning majors. There are only two players ahead of him after the second day, and neither has won a major. So look out - if manages to win, it could be the breakout of golf’s next big mega star.

Seung Yul Noh
One of the announcers said that many tour pros consider this 19 year old South Korean phenom to be the Asian Rory McIlroy. Who knows, but he’s tied with the real life McIlroy after 36 holes with rounds of 68-71, and he is showing the kind of coolness that LPGA three time major winner Yani Tseng has showed in winning three majors by the age of 21. He won earlier this year on the European Tour and tied for 40th at this year’s U.S. Open. Will he fold this weekend like you’d expect an inexperienced teenager to do, or is he that special kind of player (like Tseng) who thrives on the heat? We’ll find out soon enough.

Dustin Johnson
This guy is a monster. On the dogleg par five fifth, which measures 598 yards, he hit the green with a drive and a wedge, though he did benefit from cutting the corner. One announcer said his drive was only 350 yards. At any rate, after two rounds, he’s only three back of the leader and seems determined to make up for his final round disaster at the U.S. Open.

Dave Feherty
It seems to be getting easier and easier for the scribes to pick on David Feherty, but hey, that’s the price he must pay for unabashedly supporting Woods through thick and thin. At any rate, on Friday he made what surely must be the dumbest announce quote of the year when he said Camillo Villegas is “The best athlete on tour without question.”  Yes, he’s in great shape, but that does not make him a great athlete. To be one you must have incredible eye/hand coordination and having the mental toughness to win the game’s biggest championships year after year - in other words, Tiger Woods. Being in great shape makes a person look like an athlete, but it doesn’t mean they are one.

Tiger Woods
Woods started hot, moving to -3 after four holes, then he lost his way off the tee, missing six of his last eight fairways. On the par-three 17th he faced a 60 foot putt (720 inches). As the ball neared the cup, Woods raised his putter in anticipation of a monster putt dropping, but the ball stopped with the front edge of the ball a quarter inch short of the cup. When he was winning, these kind of putts seemed to find the cup. Woods said his goal was to shoot under par, and he did, with a 71.

Sean Foley and Tiger Woods
The whole golf world is watching and waiting for Woods to announce the official partnering of himself and super teacher Sean Foley, the guru has helped build the swings of Hunter Mahan, Sean O’Hair, and Justin Rose. According to Foley, “Nothing is official. Just sharing ideas.”  Whatever. We know Woods is super secretive, and so he may not want to deal with a 1,000 questions on the partnership while he’s in the midst of playing a major. At any rate, the pairing makes sense. We know Woods has almost always had a coach. Woods need helps. They’ve been spotted on the range. Foley accompanied him on two practice rounds. Woods is friends with several of Foley’s students. Foley is based in Florida, Woods’ home state. Etc.

Ernie Els
Ernie Els could be especially hungry for a major after blowing the U.S. Open, which he lost by only two shots. I don’t know where they are hiding the stats, but according to an announcer, Els, who was four under after 14, had hit every green but one. It could be that his game just fits this course as he did finish one back of a playoff in 2004. If he does win he tie Phil Mickelson with four majors, but would moves ahead based on the tiebreaker - he would have won three different majors to Phil’s two.

Phil Mickelson
Mickelson birdied the last two holes before darkness fell to go one under for his first 11 holes. Were it not for four of five miraculous chips and pitches, he might have already shot himself out of contention. Mickelson finished two shots out of a playoff at Whistling Straits in 2004, so perhaps he, like Els, has a affinity for this lakeside layout. As far as his recent poor starts, now we know the answer - he’s battling arthritis. That he’s giving up his beloved burgers says all you need to know about how seriously he’s taking his condition.

The Field is in Contention
About the only players who have shot themselves out of contention already are the club pros (only two matched or beat par), Padraig “The Mad Scientist” Harrington (75), John Daly (76), and Sergio Garcia (78). Otherwise, 77 players were at par or better when the horn went off ending play with , which had started three hours late due to fog.

Whistling Straits
Kudos to the PGA for bringing their major back to this course only six years after it made its major’s debut. I still not sure if this can be called a great course in the tradition of the Oakmont’s, Shinnecock’s, Pebble Beaches and St. Andrews’ of the world. But Whistling Straits is one of the most photogenic. There is variety in the holes with seven averaging under par, and five more that are averaging more than a quarter stroke over par. It’s a muscular par 72 that measures over 7,500 yards.

Phil Mickelson had a chance to take over the #1 ranking with a fourth place finish at the Bridgestone. He would, however, have had have to shot a 66 in the final round, but instead skied to a horrendous 78, one worse than Tiger Woods’ fourth round disaster.

Mickelson’s final round stats showed that he hit only six greens in regulation, and just one on the front nine. He’s also finished MC, 48t, 46t in his last three starts. Despite his awful play of late, Ladbrokes now has him as the favorite to win the PGA at 14/1.

Woods and Rory McIlroy share the next position at 16/1. That’s right! After perhaps a 14 year run as the perennial favorite at the majors, Woods is no longer, replaced by the man who can’t seem to snag his number one ranking.

Absent from the list of sub 20/1 favorites is Lee Westwood, who’s injury to his leg forced him to withdraw. So, what this means is that, going into the PGA, we have Mickelson, Woods, who finished 78t at Firestone, and McIlroy as the top three.

From this group, the obvious pick is McIlroy, who broke 70 all four rounds last week to finish 9t even though he did not hit the ball particularly well. McIlroy has his last shot to do something special at Glory’s Last Shot: if he wins, his first major will come at a younger age that Woods’ - by one whole day! Woods was 21 and 104 days when he won the 1997 Masters. McIlroy will be 21 and 103 days on Sunday!

As recently as the U.S. Open, the favorites put on a credible performance, with Els in third and Woods and Mickelson tying for fourth. At the British Open, they all finished back in the pack, and gave every indication at Firestone that they would not be in the hunt at Whistling Straits.

A month ago I wrote these words as part of my preview for the British Open: Anyone who tells you they have a bead on the probable winner of this week’s British Open is a fool or a liar. I feel even more convinced that picking the winner of the PGA is like picking one number in roulette. There are perhaps 40 players who could get hot and win, but picking that player is a guessing game.

Do you go with the winners of the last two majors, Graeme McDowell (50/1), who finished a respectable 22t at Firestone or Louis Oosthuizen (9t, 66/1) based on the fact that they are hot? Or how about Hunter Mahan (33/1), who won for the second time this year with a hot closing round. Johnny Miller once picked him for superstardom based on his strong driving. Who knows?

Among the others listed at 50/1 or better we have Padraig Harrington (20/1), Steve Stricker (25/1), Ernie Els (33/1), Retief Goosen (33/1), Justin Rose (40/1), Jim Furyk (40/1), Sean O’Hair (40/1), Paul Casey (50/1), Martin Kaymer (50/1), Luke Donald (50/1), Dustin Johnson (50/1), Matt Kuchar (50/1), Ross Fisher (50/1), Nick Watney (50/1), and Jeff Overton (50/1).

See any names out of this bunch on which you’d care to bet a C note? If I was forced to take one, it would be Kaymer. He’s won three times on the European Tour in the last 15 months and he’s finished in the top 10 in the last two majors. Those are not exactly rock solid reasons for picking him, but that’s the point - there is no one that you can be sure of. And, with Woods’ game is the tank, this could be the most difficult major in the last 50 years to handicap, much less pick the winner.

As for Whistling Straits, based on the stats from 2004, shows that it could be one of the most democratic of all major venues. In the three way playoff we had the long hitting Vijay Singh, the winner, who ranked third in driving distance, and Justin Leonard (45th) and Chris DiMarco (61st). In the top 12 we had GIR specialists (Singh, 2nd), DiMarco (3t), and Robert Allenby (6t ). We also had the scramblers, including Leonard (49t), Els (30t), and Chris Riley (63t!).

So, when you combine a course that seems to favor no particular style of golf with a field devoid of favorites, you have golf’s ultimate guessing game, and an excellent to make some big bucks should your pick come through.

Tiger Woods is in a slump.

There is not getting around it any longer. It’s time to pull out the dreaded “s” word. It’s time for the real reporters in the interviews to ask him about his slump and “how do you plan to break out of it.”

All season long Tiger has told us he’s in the midst of a “process” whatever that means, that he’s got to stay “patient” and that it is starting to come together. In truth, his 2010 is starting to resemble 2004, a season during which he kept insisting he was “close” and that Ranger Rick would soon appear on the course. Well, Woods went winless in stroke play events on the PGA Tour that year, and it looks like he will again in 2010.

His putting has, by his own admission, been atrocious all season long. But he though he saw a ray of hope at the British Open with his driving, which he claimed was improving rapidly. Whatever. At Firestone, his home away from home and the site of 7 of his 71 wins, he has hit exactly 8 of 28 fairways in two days to rank dead last. His GIR numbers are also abysmal - he’s hit only 50% of the greens, placing him in a tie for 73rd.

His first round 74 is his worst score in 42 rounds of this event, and his second round 72 ties for second worst. So, he can’t putt, can’t drive, and he says his iron game is way off. He’s also tied for 71st, which means if there was a cut (which usually includes the low 70 and ties) he would not even be playing over the weekend.

All season long his remarks to the press have been about his game, and the process of coming back from exile. I say that is BS. His game is not in ruins because of his layoff. Heck, it only lasted from late November through Late February, at which point he was back to hitting balls.

In 2009 Woods had a big year except for the majors, winning six PGA Tour events - and he could have easily had a great year if he hadn’t tossed away the PGA in the final round. And this big year followed on the heels of a six month layoff following knee surgery.

Tiger has been deflecting his self criticism to his game. But really, his game, the poor putting, the mental mistakes that cost him the U.S. Open - the whole big mess that we get to see on the course, is really just a manifestation of the horror he must be experiencing off the course since all hell broke loose on 11/27.

Tiger, as it turns out, is tough, but not tough enough to excel at such a mentally demanding sport as golf while undergoing the stress, strain, and heartache of a life that’s in ruins.

Tiger may be through, but it is way too soon to tell. Unless, by some miracle, he rebounds to win the PGA, 2010 will become known as Woods’ Lost Season. It will be another majorless year, and an opportunity lost in his chase to become the Best Ever. Now, after 14 seasons as pros, the score is almost certainly going to read Nicklaus 14 - Woods 14.

We can write off this season because it really has more to do with Tiger’s pending divorce than it does with golf. But come next April if he is not ready to make a serious run at his fifth Green Jacket, it may be time to consider that Tiger Woods, superstar golfer, completed his majestic run of major titles with his memorable victory at Torrey Pines in the summer of 2008.

Golf Digest just recently held a roundtable of writers to discuss the hot topics of the day. After reading it I wanted to stand up and applaud some of their opinions, while on others, throwing rotten tomatoes seemed like a more appropriate response. And so, with all due respect to those in attendance, here is my two cents.

(Note: I followed the sequence of their roundtable.)

With regard to the surprise winners at the U.S. Open and St. Andrews (Graeme McDowell and Louis Oosthuizen), panel moderator and Golf.com editor Stan Weinman ask, “What is going on out there.”

Jaime Diaz starts off by saying  that “It certainly speaks to the depth in today’s game.” He concludes by saying that “In a way, it’s turned the top of the game into more of a putting contest than ever.”
CAPELLE: At the majors, I couldn’t disagree more. Phil Mickelson was 3t in GIR at the Masters, McDowell as 12t in GIR at the U.S. Open, and Oosthuizen was 12t in GIR at the Open, three less than the leader, and he was first in fairways hit. Though Nicklaus and Woods are great putters, it was their great  ball striking that put them in position to win. It was the differentiator over 72 holes.

E. Michael Johnson: “Just because they weren’t on our picks list doesn’t mean they’re not great players.”
CAPELLE: So, these now one time major winners are great players? The word great has been so overused as to have lost all of its meaning.

Craig Bestrom: “…if Tiger isn’t dominating, there are 100 guys who can win at every major.”
CAPELLE - It just appears that way when a long shot comes through. Oosthuizen appears to be one of the crowd, but he has something that put him over the top whereas 90% of the unknowns, in his position, would have found a way to throw it away.

Tim Rosaforte: We’re going to see more of the Oosthuizens and McDowells as long as Tiger is in this holding pattern.
CAPELLE - The reason why you get these oddball winners is that there is no second tier of champions to fill the void, no Trevinos and Watsons, and so, by default, these unknowns win.

Jaime Diaz: I think the big X factor these days is desire. Because so many players make such a comfortable living in today’s game, it takes a special person to keep pushing like the old guys — who weren’t getting rich unless they were winning — did.
CAPELLE - Agree 100%.

Ron Sirak: Combine that (poor ball striking) with all those the putts that aren’t falling, and I think this is a long-term repair project. I say he (Woods) doesn’t win this year.
CAPELLE - At this point, this is not a difficult call. Woods won’t talk about it, but his personal life has to have had a huge impact on his game, considering that there is really no other good reason for his season long poor play.

Craig Bestrom: If he qualifies for the Tour Championship, Tiger probably only plays six more PGA Tour events this year. It’s not at all far-fetched to say he won’t win in 2010.
CAPELLE - It was only a couple of seasons ago when there was talk that Woods would win every tournament after he opened up with three straight. Now the talk is that he won’t win any!

Tim Rosaforte: Maybe he’s not far off, but on a course as penal as this one (Whistling Straights), he’ll be lucky to play on the weekend.
CAPELLE - That is very possible. Woods improved driving only seems to happen on courses with wide enough fairways that he can swing freely at the ball.

Stan Weinman: You need sustainable storylines. You can’t have a guy win a major and then disappear for months.
CAPELLE - Sustainable story lines are what made the Nicklaus Era so awesome - recognizable supertars contending for most majors.

Michael Johnson: I’m all for letting them blast away. It’s a sport — where physical prowess should count. I don’t care if they shoot 20 under at Augusta or Pebble or St. Andrews.
CAPELLE - Golf is a eye/hand coordination and mental sport where people of all sizes can compete. Does he want it to be dominated by six foot plus body builders or what? Besides, there are the perennial arguments about cost of building and maintain longer courses.

Jaime Diaz: It’s not about par, it’s about producing the golf that tests the best in the game in the most interesting way. If it’s wedge or short iron to everything, that diminishes the interest of the play for me.
CAPELLE - Exactly, golf should be a total examination, not a demonstration of skill with three clubs. Nicklaus is the Best Ever in part because he was the best with the long and mid irons. Can today’s players even hit them?

E. Michael Johnson: Was Tiger’s win at the Masters in 1997 not interesting? Were his wins at St. Andrews not interesting? Lots of wedges and short irons in those wins.
CAPELLE - Right. Just like Super Bowls that are over at half times and ball games where one team leads 10-0 going into the eighth inning.

Tim Rosaforte: Yani Tseng and Bernhard Langer didn’t make SportsCenter or the front page of USA Today for winning majors on their tours.
CAPELLE - I couldn’t care less if Langer’s win appeared in 4 point type considering that he uses the long putter.  In Tseng’s case, it is a crying shame that she did not get more coverage for her awesome play, tee to green, and her clutch play at the end.

Jaime Diaz: These days, a top tour player who is really on is longer and straighter than ever, which on a course that isn’t an absolute brute leaves him a ton of wedge approaches. If he’s on with those, he has a bunch of eight-footers for birdies. That will add up to more scores in the low 60s and the not-infrequent 59. If that’s what you want modern golf to be, fine. Personally, I prefer a 59 that requires more than just a good day with a handful of clubs.
CAPELLE - I was going to write a column on the low scores (and may yet) but Diaz nailed it with his take on how they are shooting 59s.

Craig Bestrom: I’ll take talent over work ethic every time in golf. I think we’ll all agree that Phil Mickelson’s 38 wins, four majors and No. 2 world ranking are from talent, not work ethic.
CAPELLE - That runs counter to a ton of recent heavily researched books that say hard work over a long time is what makes someone great. And what about Ben Hogan, Gary Player, and Woods?

Yani Tseng has laid claim to title of the world’s best golfer with her win at the Women’s British Open.

At the age of 21 and 6 months, she has now won three majors at a much earlier age than anyone else. Se Re Pak was 23 years and 10 months old when she claimed her third. Annika Sorenstam, the best player of the last 30 years, did not win her third of 10 until she was 30!

Tseng has also claimed three legs of the Career Grand Slam, taking these monkey’s off her back, leaving her free to add to her collection in each event. And all that’s left for round one of the Slam is the U.S. Open, at which she finished 10t this year.

With three majors already and a locomotive’s worth of career momentum on her side, it is not hard to imagine this young phenom jetting up the major’s ladder. To reach the top, she must win 15 like Patty Berg. If you only consider the majors winners since the LPGA was formed in 1950, then Mickey Wright, with 13, is the one to beat. And, in the Modern Era, Sorenstam leads the way with seven more than Tseng.

There are several reasons why Tseng could become the Best Ever: 1) she’s got so much time ahead of her, 2) she’s got momentum, 3) she plays well under pressure, 4) she’s proven she can win under varying conditions, from the desert to the parkland courses to the links across the pond, and 5) most importantly, she’s got the best swing since Jack Nicklaus.

On this last point, consider the evidence. So far this year she ranks fourth in Greens in Regulation. When she won the Kraft-Nabisco earlier this year she was second in GIR, one back of Karen Stubbles. And, at the British Open, she put on what was arguably the most dominant display of ball striking in the history of the game.

Here is the proof: Tseng hit 63 greens (88%) in regulation. Among the next 12 finishers (the top 9 and ties) second place finisher Karen Hull was next with 54. As a group, the dozen closest followers averaged only 47.6 (66%), nearly four per round fewer.

Her statistical dominance was no accident - Tseng has a near perfect swing, a blend of perfect positions, aggression, and artistry. She attacks the ball with complete confidence and no fear. The result: long and accurate drives a la Nicklaus, and unerring iron play, again like Jack.

Another thing about Tseng is that, like Nicklaus, she knows how to win, and not just with a lead like Woods.

At the age of 19, she made up a three shot deficit on Maria Hjorth, her opponent in a playoff, and two shot deficits to Sorenstam and Lorena Ochoa with a closing 68. She then stuck her approach close to the pin to win the sudden death playoff to win the 2008 LPGA. At this year’s Kraft-Nabisco she finished with a 68, which tied for low round of the day, after starting the final round a shot back of Stubbles. In short, she knows how to win from behind, to post low closing rounds, and to withstand the pressure of a playoff.

That takes up to yesterday’s Open. Going into the final round, Tseng enjoyed a four shot lead Over Hull after posting three straight 68s. The tournament was hers to win or lose, and you could see that she was trying desperately to prevent the later. Going into the back nine, Tseng still lead by four after the pair matched 35s on the front nine.

On the tenth, Tseng three-putted to drop a shot, then lost another at 11 when Hull holed about a 20 footer for birdie. On the long13th Hull stuck her approach from over 200 yards to three feet to close within a shot with five to play. Game on!

Both hit long on the par-three 14th and faced the same tricky putt from off the back, which broke sharply to the right. Hull putted to within 4 feet, Tseng to about seven. Leaking oil, this was the make or break putt, and Tseng calmly rolled it into the center of the cup to maintain her one shot advantage.

The duo matched pars on the next four holes, so Tseng carried a one shot lead into the reachable par-five 18th. After Hull drove in the rough, Tseng bombed her tee shot down the gut - but it rolled and rolled until it tumbled into an awkward lie in a bunker, over 300 yards from the tee. Hull blasted her fairway metal over the green, leaving herself with a tough pitch. Tseng was forced to lay up, leaving her 140 yards from the pin. Her third strayed wide right and long, about 40 feet from the pin off the back edge.

Hull’s third was killed by the slope and her ball stopped about 20 feet short. Tseng, faced with a super tough approach over hill and dale, left her putt about 6 feet short. Hull missed, her ball stopping about two feet past the hole, setting the stage for Tseng to choke or respond to the moment like a champion. She rolled the winning putt into the cup to claim her third major.

Not long ago people worried about the demise of women’s golf. But if you look at this year’s majors, you’d have to say that the game has much going for it. American stars Christie Kerr (the LPGA) and Paul Creamer (the U.S. Open) won majors, and Tseng, potentially the Best Ever, captured two. What, indeed, is there not to like about that?

For so long it was easy to remember Al Geiberger’s 59, which he shot in 1977. One reason is that Mr. 59 was the only one to break 60 until Chip Beck matched his feat in 1991.

Now, it seems, we are being besieged by super low scores. Earlier in the year Ryo Ishikawa shocked the golf world with a final round 58 in route to a win on the Japan Tour. A week ago Carl Pettersson lipped out a putt on the 18th green and had to settle for a mere 60. Then, a few days ago, young Bobby Wyatt, a high school golfer in Alabama, shot a 14 under par 57 on a 6,638 yard course.

Before the proverbial dust could even settle on this latest foray into double digits under par, J.B. Holmes went out and blistered the Greenbrier’s Old White Course with a spiffy little round of 60, 10 under on this 7,020 track.

With some time on my hands, I decided to examine his round with the aid of ShotLink. Here is what I discovered.

First of all, Holmes played the four par three in a rather pedestrian even par. That means he played the 14 par 4s and 5s in 10 under.

The first par 5 (#12) measures 568 yards. No problem. Just hit a 331 yard drive, a 236 yard second shot, and he’s got a two putt birdie. The second par 5 (#17) is 572 yards long. No sweat. Bomb one 359 off the tee, knock the 224 yard approach to 10 feet and Holmes got an easy two putt birdie.

Okay, that takes care of the six par 3s and 4s, which he played in two under. That means that Holmes played the 12 par 4s, which are normally tough to go super low on, in eight strokes under par. How was this possible? Easy - in this day and age, even previously super long four pars over 440 yards, of which there are six on Old White, have been reduced to pitch and putt golf.

The scorecard for the par fours below shows Holmes score, the length of his tee shots and his approaches.

Holmes on the Par 4s (hole, score, yardage, his drive, his approach)
H–H–Yd.-TS–App.
1–3–449–320–117
2–4–448–306–137
4–3–398–385–42  (drove about pin high!)
5–3–344–269–72  (layup)
6–4–471–330–145
7–3–405–319–93
9–3–404–292–102

10–3–385–319–56
11–4–447–342–129
13–3–474–324–137
14–4–399–299–88
16–3–442–336–102

Besides the eight birdies, the stats that stand out are the length of his tee shots and his approaches. These holes averaged 424 yards, and yet Holmes average approach measured a scant 102 yards, with only three of over 120 yards. In short, thanks to modern technology, today’s courses can be reduced to pitch and putts, especially when a player gets hot with his driver.

The formula for shooting 60 and below has been reduced to this: have the ability on a given day to hit it long and straight, have a strong wedge game (you don’t need to master the other 11 clubs), and putt lights out on today’s pool table greens.

With the super low score mystery solved, you can look for more of these ridiculous rounds in the years ahead except, thank god, at the majors, which are the only ones that count anyway.

NOTE: I just did the math - this is my 400th post/column since my blog commenced in February, 2008. My how time flies.